BNB Up or Down - October 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET" on Polymarket [1]. According to the contract wording, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the contract states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T21:45:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's listed close time, not evidence of when resolution was completed or any other event occurred.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z and retrieved at 2026-10-28T05:19:23.597Z [1]. These are two different times, and the observation time is the one that matters for the prices. The provider status at capture was "active" [1]. Nothing here shows the market's price at the moment you read this.
At observation, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from one provider, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The small gap between them reflects the saved values only. The snapshot does not show volume, depth, or how many traders hold either side, so it says nothing about liquidity.
The sample covers one market from one event, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. Both outcomes of this binary contract are included, so no outcome is omitted.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices were where they were at observation. It also does not show any price movement after 03:00 UTC, the actual TWAP values, or the price at the start of the window, which the resolution rule requires for comparison [1]. Because only one provider's contract is included, it is not comparable to any other platform's contract without checking its own wording and close time. Differing prices across contracts with different rules would not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window crypto contract on Polymarket that asks whether the price of BNB, measured in US dollars, will finish higher or lower over a specific five-minute period on October 28, 2026. The title gives the window as 5:40PM to 5:45PM ET. The contract's rules tie the outcome to a time-weighted average price, not to a single spot price at one moment [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. If the average is lower than the starting price, it resolves to "Down" [1]. Because the comparison uses an average over the whole window, a brief move at the end of the period does not decide the result on its own. The rules specify the data source. The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream that Chainlink publishes [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink stream and not according to any other source or spot market [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a price shown on an exchange should keep that distinction in mind. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T21:45:00.000Z, which is the close of the window [1]. The page data was observed at 03:00 UTC and retrieved at 05:19 UTC on October 28, 2026, when the provider status was active [1]. Those are the times of the snapshot, not the time of resolution. The contract had not reached its listed end time when the snapshot was retrieved, and the final outcome depends on the Chainlink data over the window.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average BNB/USD price over a five-minute window is at or above the price at the start of that window, as reported by a specified Chainlink data stream [1]. It is useful for reading the rules of short-horizon crypto contracts, because the settlement method, the data stream, and the window boundaries determine the result. The listed price for each outcome is a snapshot from a provider page. It is not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability of either outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the 5:40PM to 5:45PM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price data decides the outcome?
The outcome is decided by the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market is not based on any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T21:45:00.000Z [1].
Does a price shown for this contract mean the outcome is known?
No. The provider observed the prices at 03:00 UTC on October 28, 2026, and the contract was still active when the page was retrieved at 05:19 UTC [1]. The outcome depends on the Chainlink TWAP over the window, which had not been finalized at that retrieval time.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.