Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the Hyperliquid price over the window named in its title, October 19, 11:00PM to 11:15PM ET. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with another Hyperliquid market should check whether that market uses the same data stream, the same averaging method, and the same window. Wording differences like these can change what a "Up" outcome means.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T03:15:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not a record that the market has resolved. The provider reports the market as active [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:32:30.949Z [1]. These times describe when the data was captured, so the prices below describe that moment and not live conditions now.
At that observation, the outcomes were priced at Up 0.505 and Down 0.495 [1]. These are quoted prices, not executable orders, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small. Because this is a single snapshot from one platform, the saved data does not show how these prices have changed over time or whether they will change before the listed end time.
The source does not report volume or trader counts for this market, so this comparison cannot speak to liquidity or how many participants hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record marks the sample as complete for that saved event, with one of one markets included [1]. The source also warns that the saved event does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Here the outcomes are the binary Up and Down pair.
The snapshot does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it contains no news or other information about the Hyperliquid price. Comparing this contract with a differently worded contract on another platform requires reading both rule sets, since different data sources or windows are not interchangeable.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-interval crypto contract titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 19, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET" [1]. Its rules state that it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules specify that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the HYPE/USD pair, not any other sources or spot markets [1]. Because the contract is tied to a specific data feed and a specific averaging window, the outcome depends on that feed's TWAP rather than on a single quoted price at the end of the window. The saved record lists the contract's end time as 2026-10-20T03:15:00.000Z and gives its provider status as active [1]. That end time is the listed closing time of the contract. It is not a report of how the market resolved, and the record does not contain a resolution. The saved event contains one market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. At the observation time recorded for this snapshot, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the provider record, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they describe the moment of observation only.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP over the 11:00PM to 11:15PM ET window ends at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Using a time-weighted average rather than a single print means the result reflects the average level across the interval relative to the starting price [1]. Because the rules limit the question to this specific data stream, the contract answers a narrow question about that feed. It does not by itself describe the broader price of Hyperliquid or HYPE across other venues [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What happens if the average is below the starting price?
In that case the contract resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price data determines the outcome?
The outcome is determined by the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Does the listed end time mean the contract has resolved?
No. The record lists an end time of 2026-10-20T03:15:00.000Z and an active status, which describes the contract's closing time rather than a resolution [1].
Are the displayed prices probabilities?
The record shows prices of 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down at the observation time [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.