Market snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

US 10Y Treasury yield at 1:00pm ET?

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US 10Y Treasury yield at 1:00pm ET?

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Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Saved prices are comparisons, not executable quotes. A price difference does not establish arbitrage. Check both contracts, live order prices, fees and available size.

Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(34)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	99.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	99.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	99.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	99.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	97.0%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	96.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	95.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	95.0%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	92.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	85.0%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	60.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	30.0%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	15.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	8.0%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	4.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	4.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	3.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	3.0%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.32% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.30% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%
Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?	Kalshi	0.5%

Rules & Resolution

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Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC

About This Event

Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above X at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike. Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Event: US 10Y Treasury yield at 1:00pm ET?
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Reported event volume (provider units): K 0 contracts
Coverage: 34 of 34 saved contracts included.
Prices are saved observations, not executable quotes. Listed close dates do not promise settlement or payout time.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.99% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T499; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 4.99% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.00% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T500; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.00% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.01% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T501; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.01% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.02% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T502; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.02% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.03% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T503; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.03% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.04% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T504; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.04% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.05% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T505; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.05% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.06% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T506; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 95.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 5.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.06% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.07% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T507; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 92.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 7.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.07% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.08% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T508; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 85.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 15.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.08% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.09% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T509; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 60.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 39.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.09% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.10% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T510; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 30.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 70.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.10% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.11% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T511; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 15.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 84.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.11% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.12% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T512; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 8.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 92.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.12% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.32% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T532; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.32% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.31% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T531; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.31% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.30% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T530; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.30% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.29% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T529; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.29% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.28% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T528; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.28% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.27% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T527; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.27% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.26% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T526; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.26% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.25% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T525; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.25% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.24% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T524; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.24% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.23% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T523; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.23% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.22% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T522; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.22% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.21% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T521; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.21% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.20% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T520; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.20% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.19% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T519; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.19% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.18% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T518; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.18% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.17% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T517; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 0.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 99.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.17% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.16% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T516; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.0%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 97.0%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.16% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.15% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T515; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 3.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 96.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.15% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.14% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T514; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.14% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Contract: Will the Pyth 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 5.13% on Oct 15 at 1:00pm ET?
Provider: kalshi; ID: kalshi-KX10YRRATEH-15OCT2613-T513; status: active
Source: https://kalshi.com/markets/kx10yrrateh-15oct2613
Observed: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
Listed close: Oct 22, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC
Reported volume: 0 contracts
Outcome Yes: 4.5%; 24h change unavailable
Outcome No: 95.5%; 24h change unavailable
Saved rules: If the Pyth security yield for the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note is above 5.13% at Oct 15, 2026 at 1:00pm ET, the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Settlement uses the closing Pyth yield of the one-minute candlestick immediately preceding the settlement time. For a 1:00pm ET observation, use the 12:59pm candle, covering 12:59:00pm up to but excluding 1:00:00pm ET. No averaging applies. The closing Pyth yield, expressed as a percentage, is rounded to five decimal places using round-half-up before comparison with the strike.

Other sources and stale or carried-forward values cannot substitute. If reliable data is unavailable by expiration, or none is expected, settlement is at the Exchange-determined last fair price, unless a "No data" strike is listed. Corrections, expiration and Rule 7.1 review follow the full contract rules. Kalshi is not affiliated with Pyth.

Saved cross-platform review:
No exact pair with two valid binary Yes prices is available for comparison.

Explain the named outcomes, material rule/deadline differences, and evidence limits. Keep Polymarket dollar volume separate from Kalshi contract counts. Do not average unrelated contracts, infer missing prices or changes, or describe unreviewed/related pairs as equivalent. Distinguish listed prices from executable bid/ask prices, fees and available size. Do not invent current news, confidence scores or settlement guarantees. Cite the provided source links and identify what further evidence would be needed.

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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