Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The OR-03 event asks which party wins the OR-03 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections [1]. The market resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the seat. A candidate's party is set by ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called [1]. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to the Democratic or Republican parties is assigned to the party with which they most recently expressed intent to caucus at that time [1]. Resolution follows a consensus of credible reporting. If that is ambiguous, it follows official results reported by the Federal Election Commission [1].

The saved record contains two contracts: one for the Democratic Party and one for the Republican Party [1]. Each is a separate Yes or No question, so the two prices should be read separately rather than as one distribution.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these markets at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:51:44.818Z [1]. These are historical snapshots of quoted prices. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.

In the snapshot, the Democratic Party Yes contract was priced at 0.957 and the Republican Party Yes contract at 0.0395 [1]. The two Yes prices sum to about 0.997, which is close to but not exactly one. This gap does not show an arbitrage opportunity, because the evidence contains no information on fees, spreads, or execution.

Both contracts list an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. The rules name November 3, 2026 as the election date [1]. The listed end time is a provider field, not a stated resolution date, and the evidence does not say when resolution will occur.

The saved record includes both markets for this event and carries no partial sample flag [1]. The provider states that this does not establish that every possible outcome is listed [1]. The evidence does not include volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do. It contains no recent news, no candidate status updates, and no election results. Because the snapshot reflects a past observation time, it should not be read as the current price. The evidence includes only this provider's event, so these prices should not be compared with contracts on other platforms.

References

1. Polymarket: OR-03 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.