Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

US retail jobs added this holiday season

Total Volume

$2.44K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

US retail jobs added this holiday season

Vol

$2.44K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.44K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.44K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000?	Kalshi	95%
Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 350,000?	Kalshi	94%
Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 450,000?	Kalshi	63%
Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 400,000?	Kalshi	63%
Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 500,000?	Kalshi	15%
Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 550,000?	Kalshi	8%
Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 600,000?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$2.44K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

September–December 2026 If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above X jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All employees, retail trade” series, CEU4200000001. The expiration value is the first published December 2026 level, converted from thousands to individual jobs, minus the fixed September baseline of 15,3

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US retail jobs added this holiday season
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** September–December 2026

If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above X jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All employees, retail trade” series, CEU4200000001. The expiration value is the first published December 2026 level, converted from thousands to individual jobs, minus the fixed September baseline of 15,3

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 600,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All em"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.4K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 600,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 550,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 500,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 450,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $100
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 400,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 62.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 37.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 350,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 15, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

US retail jobs added this holiday season

Volume$2.44K

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.0¢No 5.0¢

KALSHISports

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000?

If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 300,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All em

KALSHI

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 350,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.0¢No 6.0¢

KALSHISports

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 350,000?

If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 350,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All em

KALSHI

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 450,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.5¢No 37.5¢

KALSHISports

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 450,000?

If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 450,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All em

KALSHI

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 400,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 62.5¢No 37.5¢

KALSHISports

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 400,000?

If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 400,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All em

KALSHI

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 500,000?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KALSHISports

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 500,000?

If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 500,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All em

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49¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/JBWr2Z" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="US retail jobs added this holiday season"></iframe>

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US retail jobs added this holiday season

US retail jobs added this holiday season

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Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

US retail jobs added this holiday season

Markets (7)

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 350,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 350,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 450,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 450,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 400,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 400,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 500,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 500,000?

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Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

US retail jobs added this holiday season

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 300,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 350,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 350,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 450,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 450,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 400,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 400,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 500,000?

Will U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 be above 500,000?

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