Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers a 15-minute window in the title, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if "the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the "BTC/USD TWAP data stream" from Chainlink [1]. The rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a Bitcoin price quoted elsewhere should note that the wording points to a specific data stream and a time-weighted average, not a spot price at a single moment.
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T20:00:00.000Z [1]. The evidence does not state a resolution time or confirm the outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T02:20:58.155Z [1]. These are the times recorded in the supplied data, and the prices below describe that observation, not live conditions.
The saved quotes were:
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495 [1]
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. A 0.505 price on "Up" does not mean the market has established that the outcome is 50.5 percent likely. The two prices in this snapshot sum to 1.000, but the evidence does not show what trading conditions would be available at the time of any order.
The sample covers one market in one provider event. The coverage record shows 1 total market and 1 included market, with no partial sample [1]. Because there is only one contract here, no comparison with other platforms or other Bitcoin windows is possible from this evidence. Different contracts with different wording or close times should not be treated as an opportunity merely because their prices differ.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, number of traders, or any explanation for price movement, so none can be assessed from this snapshot. It also does not include the Bitcoin price at the start of the window, the TWAP during the window, or the final result.
Any reader using this contract should check the current provider status and the listed end time directly, because this record is a saved observation from 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T00:00:05.999Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Bitcoin contract listed on Polymarket with the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET" [1]. The contract is a binary market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. Its rules tie the result to price movement over a fixed window, which is set by the title rather than by any event or announcement [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. If not, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rules specify that the price is the one generated by Chainlink, not a price from other sources or spot markets [1]. The resolution source is identified as information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval [1]. Because the rules name one data stream, the outcome depends on that feed's values for the window, and not on which exchange or venue a trader might use to watch Bitcoin's price [1]. The source lists the contract's end time as 2026-10-27T20:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed closing time in the contract data. It is not evidence that the contract has closed or that any outcome has been determined. The source also records the provider status as active at the time it was captured [1]. Any current status should be read from the dated status shown by the application rather than from this background text.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Bitcoin's time-weighted average price over one 15-minute window, as recorded by one named Chainlink data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. The title gives the window in Eastern Time, while the source records the listed end time in UTC [1]. Because the measure is an average over the window compared with a starting price, a move in either direction during the window does not by itself settle the result. The rules define the outcome through this specific feed, so people reading the contract should follow its wording rather than general news about Bitcoin prices [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves Up if the TWAP of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and Down otherwise [1].
Which price data is used for settlement?
The rules specify the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval, and state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When is the listed end time for this contract?
The source lists the end time as 2026-10-27T20:00:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed closing time, and the source does not describe an outcome having been reached.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.