Rune vs Vacherot
K 85.7K contracts
1
2
Rune vs Vacherot
K 85.7K contracts
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Holger Rune at 57.5%.
Kalshi
- Holger Rune57.5%
- Valentin Vacherot42.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 85.7K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Rune vs Vacherot (Oct 30) If X wins the Rune vs Vacherot professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Basel Quarterfinal after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Rune vs Vacherot professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Basel Quarterfinal after a ball has been played. If the match does not occur, signaled by a ball being played, due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation, all before the match starts, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether a named player wins the Rune vs Vacherot professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Basel Quarterfinal [1]. A Yes outcome resolves to Yes if that player wins after a ball has been played [1]. Two separate markets are saved: one for Holger Rune winning and one for Valentin Vacherot winning [1].
The rules cover cancellations. If the match does not occur because of injury, walkover, forfeiture, or another cancellation before the match starts, the market resolves to a fair price in accordance with the rules [1]. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks [1]. The market closes and expires after a winner is declared [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-30T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 03:25:31Z [1]. They describe that earlier moment and are not current quotes. At observation, the Rune Yes price was 0.565 and the Vacherot Yes price was 0.435 [1]. These are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
In this sample the two Yes prices sum to 1.00, because the markets are complementary outcomes of the same match. That alignment does not by itself indicate any opportunity. The saved data also does not include volume figures for this comparison, so it says nothing about liquidity.
The market data lists an end date of 2026-11-13T11:00:00Z, but the source excerpt states that the listed end time is not supplied [1]. Readers should not treat that field as the match date. Under the rules, closing depends on a declared winner or a rescheduled match finishing [1].
The sample includes all saved markets for this event: two of two, with no partial sample flagged [1]. That covers only this match's two markets. It does not establish that every possible outcome is listed.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show whether play has started, whether the match has been rescheduled, or what prices look like now. It does not explain why the prices sit where they do. No other platform is supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible, and the listed end date conflict remains unresolved in the evidence.
References
- Kalshi: Rune vs Vacherot. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Kalshi market on the men's singles match between Holger Rune and Valentin Vacherot, listed as part of the 2026 ATP Basel Quarterfinal [1]. The event page lists two binary markets: one that resolves on whether Holger Rune wins and one on whether Valentin Vacherot wins [1]. Under the contract wording, a Yes outcome on a market means the named player wins the match after a ball has been played [1]. The contract also sets out what happens if the match does not start. If the match is not played because of a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or another cancellation before play begins, the market resolves to a fair price under the platform's rules rather than to Yes or No [1]. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market stays open and closes after the rescheduled match finishes, within two weeks [1]. The market closes and expires once a winner is declared [1]. The saved market snapshot was observed at 03:00 UTC on October 30, 2026, and the two outcome prices were Yes 0.565 for Rune and Yes 0.435 for Vacherot [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved end date field reads November 13, 2026, but this is a provider data field and the contract text ties closing to the declared winner, so the date should not be read as an announced match or resolution date.
Historical Context
The supplied sources offer only limited background. A Wikipedia article on Holger Rune describes his career record, including his highest singles ranking and his 2022 Paris Masters title [3]. This is historical biographical information and does not describe his status in the 2026 Basel match. A separate Wikipedia article about the 2026 Shanghai Masters singles final concerns a different tournament and is not connected to this match [2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific player wins one scheduled ATP tour match, the 2026 ATP Basel Quarterfinal between Rune and Vacherot [1]. It is useful for readers who want to understand how a sports match contract is defined: the trigger is a ball being played, and the rules describe how cancellations, walkovers, and postponements are handled [1]. The contract is explicitly not affiliated with the governing league, so the platform's written rules are the only resolution terms in this record [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes the market resolve to Yes?
A Yes outcome requires the named player to win the match after a ball has been played [1].
What happens if the match is cancelled before it starts?
If the match does not occur because of an injury, walkover, forfeiture, or another cancellation before the match starts, the market resolves to a fair price under the rules [1].
What happens if the match is postponed?
The market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match finishes, within two weeks of that finish [1].
When does the market close?
The market closes and expires after a winner is declared [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
