When will any company achieve AGI? | PredictPedia

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13 markets tracked

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?	Kalshi	62%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?	Kalshi	60%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	57%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?	Kalshi	55%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?	Kalshi	54%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028?	Kalshi	52%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	44%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2027?	Kalshi	39%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	38%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2027?	Kalshi	31%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	26%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?	Kalshi	10%
Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2026?	Kalshi	3%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, April 15, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will any company achieve AGI?
**Category:** Companies | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Corporate announcement

If any company, public or private, officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence, AGI, after market issuance and before Jan 1, X then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence, AGI, or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “towa

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attaine"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2031): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2030): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 59.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 55.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 44.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 38.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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41¢

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When will any company achieve AGI?

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Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?

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When will any company achieve AGI?

Markets (13)

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?

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Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will any company achieve AGI?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?

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