Skip to main content
Market snapshot: . Prices may have changed since this snapshot.
Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Spain General Election: Cáceres Winner

Spain General Election: Cáceres Winner
Vol

PM $10.1K

|
Events

1

|
Markets

5

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is PP at 66%.

Polymarket

  1. PP66%
  2. PSOE25%
  3. Podemos0.5%
  4. Vox0.1%
  5. Broad Front (FA)0.1%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $10.1K

Reported volume · provider units

5

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

Legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies of Spain are scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Cáceres as a result of this election. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Parties will be ranked by the number of seats won by their electoral lists (candidaturas) in the constituency of Cáceres, attributed as set out below. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by their lists in the constituency of Cáceres, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Seats and votes will be attributed according to the electoral list on which they were obtained, as reported in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates. Lists will be attributed as follows: PSOE: lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia. PP: lists of the People's Party, including the joint UPN–PP list in Navarre. Broad Front (FA): all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People’s Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands. ERC: Republican Left of Catalonia lists, including the joint ERC–Podem lists in Catalonia. Podemos: only lists presented by Podemos on its own. CCa: Canarian Coalition lists, including the joint CCa–1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands. Any other list will be attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior (https://infoelectoral.interior.gob.es/).

This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

Each contract asks which party will win the most seats in the Congress of Deputies in the Cáceres constituency at the Spanish general election. The source states that "This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies of Spain in the constituency of Cáceres as a result of this election." [1]

The wording depends on how lists are grouped. The PSOE contract includes "lists of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party, including the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC) lists in Catalonia." [1] The Broad Front contract covers "all Broad Front lists, including Catalunya en Comú in Catalonia, Compromís–Valencian Front in the Valencian Community, and Canarian People's Unity (UPC) in the Canary Islands." [1] Podemos counts only "lists presented by Podemos on its own." [1] Readers comparing contracts should check these definitions before treating two parties as directly comparable.

Ties are broken first by valid votes in the constituency and then alphabetically. If final results are not definitively known by the listed deadline, the market resolves to "Other." [1]

Reading the snapshot

The saved quotes were observed at 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z. They were retrieved at 04:37 UTC on the same day, but they should not be read as live prices. The five Yes prices are 0.655 for PP, 0.29 for PSOE, 0.13 for Broad Front, 0.13 for Vox, and 0.105 for Podemos. [1] These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The five contracts are the entire saved sample for this event. The coverage record shows 5 of 5 markets included and no partial sample. [1] The Yes prices sum to more than 1, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution. The sample does not include an "Other" contract, so no price for that outcome can be inferred.

The contracts close at 2026-11-30T04:59:00.000Z. The source states the election is "scheduled to take place on November 29, 2026." [1] That date comes from the source's description, not from a result.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show the election result, any post-snapshot price movement, or the reasons behind the quoted prices. Trading volume is not liquidity, and it is not a count of traders. Different contracts with different prices are not an arbitrage opportunity, especially when their list definitions differ.

References

  1. Polymarket: Spain General Election: Cáceres Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T03:00:06.015Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTC

This saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.

Overview

This contract asks which party will win the most seats in the Congress of Deputies from the constituency of Cáceres in Spain's next general election. The contract text states that legislative elections to elect the 350 members of the Congress of Deputies are scheduled for November 29, 2026 [1]. That date appears in the contract's description of the election and is not presented as a separate announcement of the event. The market resolves to the party that occupies the highest finishing position after ranking parties by the number of seats their electoral lists win in Cáceres [1]. The ranking has tie-break rules. If parties are tied on seats, the total number of valid votes received by their lists in Cáceres decides the order, with higher totals ranking higher. If parties are still tied, alphabetical order of the listed party names decides [1]. Seats and votes are attributed by the electoral list on which they were obtained, as shown in the official results, regardless of the party membership of individual candidates [1]. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, and later changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership are not considered [1]. The contract groups several lists under named parties. PSOE includes Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya lists in Catalonia. PP includes the joint UPN-PP list in Navarre. Broad Front includes lists such as Catalunya en Comú, Compromís-Valencian Front, and Canarian People's Unity [1]. ERC includes joint ERC-Podem lists in Catalonia, while Podemos counts only lists it presents on its own. CCa includes joint CCa-1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands [1]. Any other list is attributed to the party or coalition that presents it, as named in the official proclamation of candidacies [1]. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting. If the results are ambiguous, the contract says the market resolves solely on the results reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior [1]. If the results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the option labeled Other [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2026-11-30T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The saved event contains five separate yes or no markets, one for each of PP, PSOE, Broad Front, Vox, and Podemos winning the most Cáceres seats [1]. Each market asks whether that single party will finish first, so the contracts are separate questions rather than parts of one ranked list.

Historical Context

The supplied Wikipedia entries describe earlier Spanish general elections. A general election was held in Spain on 26 June 2016 to elect the members of the 12th Cortes Generales under the Spanish Constitution of 1978, with all 350 Congress seats and 208 of 266 Senate seats up for election. It was a repeat election under Article 99.5 of the Constitution after government formation negotiations failed following the previous general election [2]. A later general election was held on 23 July 2023 to elect the 15th Cortes Generales. The entry notes that it was the first time since 1839 that a general election in Spain was held in July [3]. These entries are background only and do not describe the 2026 election.

Why It Matters

The contract measures a constituency-level outcome rather than the national result. It asks which party or coalition, under the attribution rules, wins the most seats in Cáceres in the scheduled Congress of Deputies election [1]. Because the rules assign lists to parties in specific ways, the answer depends on those attribution choices as well as the vote count. Cooperation and coalition agreements are excluded, so a joint list is handled according to the rules rather than according to campaign alliances [1].

Snapshot context

The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]

Frequently Asked Questions

What determines the winner of this market?

The market resolves to the party that finishes highest after seats won by its electoral lists in Cáceres are ranked. Ties on seats are broken by valid votes, then alphabetically [1].

Do alliances or endorsements change how seats are counted?

No. Electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, and later changes in party affiliation or parliamentary-group membership are not considered [1].

What happens if the results are unclear?

If the results are ambiguous, the market resolves solely on the results reported by the Spanish Ministry of the Interior [1]. If the results are not definitively known by November 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].

How are joint lists treated?

Lists are attributed as the contract specifies. For example, joint ERC-Podem lists in Catalonia count toward ERC, and joint CCa-1º CAN lists in the Canary Islands count toward CCa [1].

Was this helpful?
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketWorld
Spain General Election: Biscay Winner

Spain General Election: Biscay Winner

PM $7.4K
Will PSOE win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 43%
Will EH Bildu win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 26%
Will PNV win the most seats in Biscay in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 15%
+4 moreNext deadline Nov 30, 2026 UTC
PolymarketWorld
Spain General Election: Álava Winner

Spain General Election: Álava Winner

PM $5.7K
Will PSOE win the most seats in Álava in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 67%
Will EH Bildu win the most seats in Álava in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 19%
Will PNV win the most seats in Álava in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 9%
+4 moreNext deadline Nov 30, 2026 UTC
PolymarketWorld
Spain General Election: Gipuzkoa Winner

Spain General Election: Gipuzkoa Winner

PM $5.0K
Will EH Bildu win the most seats in Gipuzkoa in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 89%
Will PSOE win the most seats in Gipuzkoa in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 9%
Will PNV win the most seats in Gipuzkoa in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 4.1%
+4 moreNext deadline Nov 30, 2026 UTC
PolymarketWorld
Spain General Election: Podemos # of seats?

Spain General Election: Podemos # of seats?

PM $9.9K
Will Podemos win exactly 0 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 60%
Will Podemos win exactly 1 seat in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 27%
Will Podemos win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 15.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 30, 2026 UTC
PolymarketWorld
Spain General Election: Girona Winner

Spain General Election: Girona Winner

PM $9.8K
Will PSOE win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 64%
Will Junts win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 19%
Will ERC win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 16%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 30, 2026 UTC
PolymarketWorld
Spain General Election: Lleida Winner

Spain General Election: Lleida Winner

PM $8.6K
Will PSOE win the most seats in Lleida in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 79%
Will ERC win the most seats in Lleida in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 19%
Will Broad Front (FA) win the most seats in Lleida in the 2026 Spanish general election?Yes 2.5%
+3 moreNext deadline Nov 30, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

Trade This Market