This PredictPedia contract concerns the margin of victory in the 2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina. The provider's rules define the margin as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The contract is therefore not a simple winner market. It asks how large the gap between the top two finishers will be, and it groups outcomes into brackets for each party. The rules map the options onto the two major parties. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The election itself is described as scheduled for November 3, 2026 [1][2]. Resolution depends on official results. The provider says the market resolves based on the official vote count once the count has been made official, with the state electoral authority responsible for certifying results named as the primary source, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount is started before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1]. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time in the provider record is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is a contract closing time in the provider record. It is not an announced date for when results will be reported or certified. The rules also address edge cases. If a reported margin falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the rules specify a tiebreak based on ballot-listed last names when the tie involves listed candidates, and resolution to "Other" when the tie involves only unlisted candidates [1]. These provisions determine how an otherwise ambiguous result would be settled.

Historical Context

The earlier 2020 North Carolina Senate election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate for the state. It took place concurrently with the 2020 presidential election, gubernatorial and senatorial elections in other states, House elections, and various state and local contests. North Carolina was one of five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently that year. Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and former Democratic state senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries on March 3, 2020 [3]. This background describes a past election. It does not describe the 2026 contest.

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