Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This snapshot covers five Polymarket contracts under one event, "Pro Football: Trey McBride 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards" [1]. Each contract asks whether McBride will reach a different receiving-yard threshold: 799.5+, 599.5+, 999.5+, 1,199.5+, and 1,399.5+ yards. The rules say the market "will resolve to "Yes" if the number of receiving yards Trey McBride records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds the listed number" [1]. If he does not play in the season "for any reason," the market resolves to "No" [1].

The rules also set a special case. If the season is cancelled, or is postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if the yardage cannot be determined, the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. A shortened season would be judged on "available official data for completed games" [1]. The resolution source is official NFL information, though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].

Reading the snapshot

The observation time is 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z, and the saved data was retrieved at 2026-10-16T06:29:39.372Z [1]. These are the only price times in the evidence. The listed contract end date for each market is 2027-01-12T23:59:00.000Z, while the event page lists an end time of 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules do not explain this gap, so readers should use the market-level date for the contract and treat the event-level date as a separate listed value.

The recorded Yes prices are 0.735 for 799.5+, 0.71 for 599.5+, 0.315 for 999.5+, 0.305 for 1,199.5+, and 0.148 for 1,399.5+ [1]. These figures are snapshots from one moment. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Volume data is not included in this summary, so it cannot tell you about liquidity.

Because each contract is a separate threshold, the prices should be read as separate observations rather than as parts of one combined distribution. The sample includes all five saved markets for this event, and none are omitted [1].

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show why any price changed or what information traders used. It also does not establish how many traders hold each position. Only Polymarket is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differences in price between contracts should not be treated as an arbitrage signal without matching rules, closing times, and execution conditions. The evidence also does not confirm the full set of outcomes that could occur in the real world [1].

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Trey McBride 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z.