Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
PM $0
1
1
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T00:00:06.197Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract is titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET" and is listed on Polymarket [1]. Its rule is that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The source lists an end time of 2026-10-24T21:00:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close, not a confirmed resolution. The title uses Eastern Time, so readers comparing it with other contracts should check that both use the same clock.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-24T00:00:06.197Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-24T01:40:49.848Z [1]. These are historical values from the saved record, not live quotes. The snapshot lists Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are observed prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The sample contains one market and two outcomes, and the record does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it cannot show how liquid the market is or how many participants hold each side.
Because the sample is a single binary market, there is no comparison with other contracts in this record. The Up and Down prices sum to 1.00 in the snapshot, but that alone does not establish a fair value or an edge.
What remains uncertain
The record does not show why the prices were set at those levels, and it contains no news or market commentary to explain them. It also does not show the BTC price at the start of the 4:45PM to 5:00PM ET window, the TWAP during that window, or the actual outcome. Any statement about the result would require later evidence that is not in this record.
The sample is complete for this one event, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. The source does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for the broader Bitcoin price field, and this snapshot should not be read as a forecast of future accuracy.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T00:00:06.197Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET" [1]. The contract is a binary market with two outcomes, Up and Down, tied to a fifteen-minute window named in its title [1]. The contract's resolution rule is based on a time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin generated by Chainlink. The market resolves to "Up" if that TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison therefore depends on an averaged price across the window and the starting price, rather than on a single price printed at the close. The named resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink [1]. The source states that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. Traders reading the contract should therefore check the Chainlink stream named in the rules, not a general exchange price for Bitcoin. The listed end time in the source is 2026-10-24T21:00:00.000Z [1], which is written in UTC, while the title expresses the window in Eastern Time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated window finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the rule uses an average over the window, the outcome reflects the averaged level compared with the starting level, not only the direction of the final moment. Because the rules restrict resolution to the named Chainlink data stream, the contract isolates one defined price feed. Anyone comparing this contract with other Bitcoin prices or markets should note that the rules explicitly exclude other sources and spot markets [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When does this market resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
When does this market resolve to Down?
The rules say that if the condition for Up is not met, the market resolves to Down [1].
Which price source determines the outcome?
The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
What time window does the contract cover?
The title identifies the window as 4:45PM to 5:00PM ET on October 24 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.