Solana Up or Down - October 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Solana Up or Down - October 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET" [1]. Its rule is that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T17:45:00.000Z, which corresponds to 1:45PM ET on October 28 [1]. A listed end time is a contract closing time, not evidence that resolution has occurred. The source reports the provider status as active [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T21:10:12.238Z [1]. It shows "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this record, but the snapshot does not show trade size, depth, or the number of participants.
The sample covers one saved market from one provider event, and the coverage record marks it as complete for that event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The source also notes that "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because only one contract appears, there is no cross-contract or cross-platform comparison to draw from this evidence.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do, and this explanation does not attempt to. It also does not show how the prices have changed since the observation, or what they are now. Readers should treat the figures as a record of one earlier moment.
Price differences between contracts with different wording, windows, or close times should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity. This contract's rule compares a time-weighted average against the starting price, so a similarly titled contract on another platform or with another source could measure something different. The actual outcome depends on the Chainlink TWAP data for the stated window, which is not included in the supplied evidence.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window contract on the price of Solana (SOL) against the US dollar. The contract is titled "Solana Up or Down - October 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET" and is listed in the crypto category on Polymarket [1]. It asks whether the price of Solana over a specific five-minute window will finish at or above where it started. The title sets the window, and the listing gives an end time of 2026-10-28T17:45:00Z [1]. The contract's rule is that it resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. If it is lower, the contract resolves to Down [1]. The measure is an average over time, not the price at the final moment. A contract can therefore resolve Up even if the price is lower at the end of the window than at a single point within it, as long as the average over the window is at least the starting price. The rule is written this way so that the outcome depends on the full path of the window rather than one trade. The resolution source is Chainlink. The contract specifies the SOL/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval, and it states that the market concerns only that Chainlink data stream for the SOL/USD pair, not other data sources or spot markets [1]. This matters when comparing with prices shown elsewhere. A price on a different exchange or aggregator is not the figure used to settle this contract. The listing shows two outcomes, Up and Down, and the provider status at the time of retrieval was active [1]. Prices shown alongside the contract are snapshots taken at a specific observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of the outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP over a stated five-minute window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window [1]. It is a narrow, rules-based question. Because it uses a time-weighted average from one named data stream, the result depends on that data stream and the window's exact boundaries rather than on general news or other price sources [1]. Anyone reading the contract should check the stated source and window, since those define what the contract settles on.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this contract actually ask?
It asks whether the time-weighted average price of Solana over the window in the title will be greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1]. If it is, the contract resolves Up. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price data decides the outcome?
The outcome is based on the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, using a 60-second interval. The contract says it concerns only that data stream and not other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the listed price tell me the chance of Up?
The price is a snapshot from a provider observation time. It is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1]. The contract's own rules define the outcome, and the price should be read only as what the market showed at that time.
Are there more outcomes than Up and Down?
The saved listing includes only the Up and Down outcomes for this contract [1]. The saved sample is limited to this provider event and does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.