Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Polymarket event, "Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET" [1]. The source says the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
Readers comparing this with other crypto price contracts should check the wording closely. A contract that uses a spot exchange price, a single timestamp, or a different data feed measures a different thing, even if the asset and time window look similar. Those contracts should not be combined with this one.
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T04:20:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's listed close time. The source does not say when resolution occurs or when it was actually resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T12:41:39.506Z [1]. The prices below describe only those moments. They are not live quotes and not verified probabilities.
The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are the only two outcomes in the saved market. Taken at face value, the snapshot shows a near-even split, with Up slightly higher. The gap is 0.010 on the saved price scale. That is a narrow difference, and it may not hold at other times.
The sample covers the single saved market for this event, with no partial sampling [1]. The provider status was "active" at the time of retrieval [1].
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why prices sit where they do, and this response does not infer a cause. It also does not report how many traders hold each side, what trading volume was, or how much liquidity exists. The saved prices are not executable quotes, so a reader cannot assume a trade would fill at 0.505 or 0.495.
The source also does not report the Ethereum price at the start of the window, so this snapshot cannot tell a reader how the outcome is likely to resolve. Anyone using this data should check the provider page for updated prices, since prices move after the observation time.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-duration price contract on Ethereum offered on Polymarket. The event is titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET" and is categorized under crypto [1]. The provider lists its status as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-31T04:20:00.000Z [1]. The contract asks whether Ethereum's price moves up or down over a five-minute window. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns the Chainlink TWAP data stream for the ETH/USD pair, not other sources or spot markets [1]. The only market saved for this event has two outcomes, Up and Down. In the saved snapshot, Up was priced at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. That snapshot was observed at 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. Prices from a snapshot like this are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Ethereum's ETH/USD price over one fixed window, defined by the time range in its title. Because the comparison uses a time-weighted average rather than a single trade, the result depends on how the Chainlink stream averages prices across that window, and on how that average compares with the price at the start of the window [1]. Traders looking at this market should note that the listed end time and the resolution rules define when and how it settles, and that the saved prices reflect one earlier observation rather than live trading.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve Up?
The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What makes this contract resolve Down?
If the Chainlink TWAP over the time range is not greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, the market resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source determines the result?
The rules specify the ETH/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
Does the saved price show the likely outcome?
The saved prices were 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down at the observation time [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they do not establish which outcome is more likely.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.