OR-01 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $10.4K
1
10
OR-01 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $10.4K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 45-50% at 30%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 45-50%30%
- Democrat 40-45%23%
- Democrat 50-55%21.5%
- Democrat 20-30%14.8%
- Democrat 30-35%11.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $10.4K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 OR-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OR-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event asks about the margin of victory in the 2026 OR-01 House election. The rules define margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Most contracts in the snapshot are margin brackets for the Democratic Party candidate, such as "by 45%-50%" or "by 60% or more." One contract is different: it asks whether the Republican Party candidate wins, not what the margin will be [1].
The rules also set several resolution details. Results come from the official count once certified, and a bracket that falls exactly between two ranges resolves to the higher bracket [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The rules state that the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026," but that is a contract statement, not a confirmed event schedule [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The prices come from an observation at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:42:40.863Z [1]. These are snapshot values, not current quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The Democratic margin brackets show Yes prices ranging from 0.006 for "by 20%-30%" to 0.355 for "by 45%-50%" [1]. The Republican win contract shows a Yes price of 0.0045 [1].
The ten contracts are separate binary markets in one event. Their Yes prices sum to about 1.07, so they should not be read as a single probability distribution without accounting for that gap. Differences between contracts reflect different wording and do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
The sample includes all ten saved markets for this event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. That describes the saved provider event only. The source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The "Other" resolution outcome is described in the rules but does not appear as a priced market in this snapshot.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price was at its observed level, and it does not show how many traders are involved or how liquid these markets are. The snapshot also contains no information after its observation time, so it cannot describe conditions on the date a reader views it. Readers should check the provider's current page and the official results process for any later information.
References
- Polymarket: OR-01 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a Polymarket event about the margin of victory in the 2026 election for Oregon's 1st congressional district (OR-01) House seat. The rules state that the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The market resolves according to the gap between the top two candidates. Margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The rules tie the contract to party nominees rather than to every candidate on the ballot. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves on the replacement nominee [1]. The saved event includes ten markets. Nine ask whether the Democratic Party candidate will win by a stated margin bracket, such as 45% to 50% or 60% or more. One asks whether the Republican Party candidate will win the election [1]. The provider event lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. For the saved snapshot observed at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, the Yes prices for the Democratic margin brackets ranged from 0.006 for the 20% to 30% bracket to 0.355 for the 45% to 50% bracket. The Yes price for the Republican win contract was 0.0045 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the provider, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and each bracket is a separate contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how large the winning margin will be in the OR-01 House race, expressed as a percentage gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes [1]. Because the margin uses percentages of valid votes rather than raw vote totals, the result depends on the share each of the two leading candidates receives [1]. The rules also specify how boundary values, ties, nominee changes and delayed results are handled, so the outcome of each bracket depends on those rules as well as the vote count [1]. Traders can use the bracket prices to compare how the market values different margin ranges, but the saved prices are only a record of the provider's observations at one time [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is that candidate's valid votes divided by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if a result falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets?
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
How are ties handled?
If two listed candidates tie for the most valid votes, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If a listed candidate ties with an unlisted candidate, it resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If two or more unlisted candidates tie, it resolves to "Other" [1].
Which candidates count for the Democratic and Republican options?
Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent those options. Independent candidates do not represent either party option [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1].
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves based on the official vote count once it has been made official [1]. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. If a recount is started before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
Does a Yes price show the probability of an outcome?
The saved prices are provider snapshots at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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