Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event, "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET," resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The named resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules state that the market concerns that stream and is not "according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Readers comparing this with a Hyperliquid market on another venue should check whether that contract uses the same source, window, and comparison rule, since wording determines what is being priced.
The listed end time is 2026-10-22T14:45:00.000Z [1]. The title's window ends at 10:45AM ET. The two refer to the same close but use different time zones, so the UTC timestamp is the easier value to compare across platforms.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-22T01:14:45.901Z [1]. These are snapshot times, not a live feed. The recorded provider status was "active" [1].
The quoted prices were Up 0.505 and Down 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The sample covers one saved market for this event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. This describes only the saved event. It does not show that the provider lists every possible outcome for the window, and no other events are included for comparison.
The record contains no volume data, so nothing can be said about liquidity or the number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the Up and Down prices sit where they do, and it contains nothing about events after the observation time. The result depends on the Chainlink TWAP calculation compared with the beginning price, and this record does not show that outcome. Because the two prices are close together, small differences between quoted values carry limited information. A price difference between this contract and a differently worded contract is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window price contract on Polymarket for HYPE/USD, titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET." The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The outcome therefore depends on how the average over the window compares with the starting price, not on where the price sits at the final moment. The resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, which the contract names directly [1]. The contract states that it concerns only the price shown in that Chainlink stream for the HYPE/USD pair, and not any other data source or spot market [1]. Traders reading a prediction price for this contract should therefore keep in mind that a move on another exchange would not, by itself, settle the market. The listed end time in the provider record is 2026-10-22T14:45:00Z [1]. That time is the contract's listed close, not a statement that any event is scheduled or has occurred. The provider record describes the event as active, and the record was observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05Z [1]. Whether the contract has since resolved should be checked against the provider, because this description reflects only the saved record.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP over the stated five-minute window finishes at or above the window's opening price [1]. Because the rule uses an average, a single brief spike or dip near the start or end of the window does not directly determine the result. The rule also ties settlement to one named data stream, so the contract reflects that feed's reported values rather than a broader view of the asset's market price [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" resolution require?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price source settles the contract?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream. The contract says it is not based on any other sources or spot markets [1].
What time window does the contract cover?
The title specifies October 22, 10:40AM to 10:45AM ET, and the provider record lists an end time of 2026-10-22T14:45:00Z [1].
Does a price on this contract confirm the outcome has already happened?
No. The provider record shows the market as active and was observed before the window closed, so any price reflects a snapshot of expectations at that time, not a confirmed result [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.