Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event resolves according to "the individual ranked #1 in Google's official Year in Search Global "Passings" list for 2026" [1]. The list is expected to appear on the Google Trends Year in Search hub with location set to Global, but the rules say the market "will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure" [1]. If Google does not release the list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market "will resolve to "Other."" [1]

The individual contracts share this event but do not all list the same end time. Most list 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z, while Renée Good, Lindsey Graham, Jesse Jackson, and James Van Der Beek list 2027-04-01T03:59:00Z [1]. The second time matches the March 31, 2027 deadline in the rules, but it is a listed close time, not an announced release date.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-10-20T00:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-20T02:39:15Z [1]. The prices below describe only that observation. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

This is a partial sample: 12 of 25 markets in the saved event are included [1]. Within that sample, the highest listed Yes price is Dolly Parton at 0.54, followed by Hayden Panettiere at 0.315 and Oliver Tree at 0.08 [1]. Chuck Norris (0.0495) and Renée Good (0.043) sit lower, and the remaining included names range from 0.002 to 0.014 [1].

Each contract is a separate market with its own Yes and No prices. The Yes prices should not be added together or averaged into a combined forecast, and the included prices should not be used to rank outcomes from other providers or events.

What remains uncertain

The 13 omitted markets have no prices in this evidence, so no conclusion should be drawn about where they sit. The evidence does not explain why any price is at its current level, how many participants hold positions, or what the 2026 list will contain. It also does not show whether Google will publish the list before the stated deadline. The provider status is listed as active, but that describes the market, not its resolution.

Because listed end times differ, contracts may close on different dates. Price differences between contracts with different wording or close times do not by themselves indicate an opportunity, since the outcomes and timing may not be equivalent.

References

1. Polymarket: #1 Searched Passing on Google 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T00:00:06.267Z.