Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Polymarket event "NV-04 House Election Margin of Victory" resolves on the gap between the top two candidates. The rules define the "margin of victory" as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket is a separate Yes or No contract on a range of that gap, and the party names are the options for "Democrat" and "Republican" [1].

The rules include several details that affect how a bracket resolves. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Independent candidates are not treated as options for either party [1]. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The source describes the election as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is an expected date from the rules, not a confirmed event time.

Reading the snapshot

The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T01:19:04.570Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only. They are not live quotes and should not be read as current prices.

The sample includes all eight saved markets for this event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. Yes prices in the snapshot were:

• Democrat, 0% to 5%: 0.0335
• Democrat, 5% to 10%: 0.105
• Democrat, 10% to 15%: 0.125
• Democrat, 15% to 20%: 0.315
• Democrat, 20% to 25%: 0.041
• Democrat, 25% or more: 0.11
• Republican, 0% to 5%: 0.004
• Republican, 5% or more: 0.0135

The highest Yes price in this snapshot was the Democrat 15% to 20% bracket at 0.315 [1]. These prices are not verified probabilities, and they should not be read as a forecast of the result.

What remains uncertain

The source states that the sample includes all saved markets for these events, but "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The Other outcome named in the rules does not appear as a market in this snapshot. Without the provider's full market list, the eight prices cannot be used to say what the remaining outcomes are priced at.

Volume is not in this summary, and the excerpt does not show how many traders are involved. Prices in this snapshot cannot be compared with prices from other platforms or contracts, since wording, tie-breaking, and close times may differ. The excerpt also gives no explanation for why any price is where it is.

References

1. Polymarket: NV-04 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.