This market is a Polymarket event titled PA-13 House Election Margin of Victory. It concerns the 2026 PA-13 House election, which the source describes as currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contract resolves on the margin of victory between the top two candidates, not simply on which party wins the seat [1]. The contract defines margin of victory as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each candidate's percentage is calculated by dividing that candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the calculation uses valid votes, the source's definition sets the denominator as all valid votes cast, not only votes for the top two candidates [1]. The contract is organized into margin brackets. The source states that if the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. For party-based options, candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. The contract also says candidates may be named for trader convenience, and if a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1]. The rules include tiebreak language. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, and the tie is between two listed candidates, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, it resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, it resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution depends on the official vote count. The primary source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount is initiated before the total is made official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z for this contract [1]. That listed time is a contract field and does not by itself establish when results will be known. The saved event includes ten contracts. Nine ask whether the Republican Party candidate will win by a specified margin bracket, and one asks whether the Democratic Party candidate will win the election [1]. The coverage record shows all ten saved markets were included and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. Those saved contracts do not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed. The prices shown in the application are snapshots from the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

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