Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event is a set of Polymarket contracts on Drake Maye's passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season [1]. Each contract asks whether he will reach a specific total. The rules say the market "will resolve to "Yes" if the number of passing yards Drake Maye records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds the listed number" [1]. If he does not play in the season "for any reason," the market resolves to "No" [1].

The rules also cover disruptions. If the season "is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason," the outcome is decided "using available official data for completed games" [1]. If the season is cancelled, or postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if the total "cannot be determined," the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. The resolution source is "official information from the NFL," though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1]. The listed end time for all five contracts is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a closing time in the contract data, not an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The saved provider observation was taken at 2026-10-16T03:00:06Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T05:30:18Z [1]. These prices describe that saved moment only. They are not live quotes and should not be treated as executable prices.

The five contracts use different thresholds, so their prices are not directly comparable as a single distribution. The quoted Yes prices are:

• 3,299.5 or more yards: Yes 0.847, No 0.153
• 3,549.5 or more yards: Yes 0.735, No 0.265
• 3,799.5 or more yards: Yes 0.565, No 0.435
• 4,049.5 or more yards: Yes 0.275, No 0.725
• 4,299.5 or more yards: Yes 0.245, No 0.755

Within each contract, the Yes and No prices sum to 1.00 in the saved data. The prices fall as the threshold rises, which is what the wording would lead a reader to expect. The snapshot does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not show how many participants hold each view.

What remains uncertain

The sample includes all five saved markets for this event, and the record reports no partial sample [1]. The data notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Only these thresholds should be compared.

The evidence contains no volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so it cannot show how deep any market is. Nothing here reports current news about Maye, the season schedule, or any roster status. Because the rules include a "50-50" outcome and a "No" result if he does not play, a reader should check the full rule text before relying on any contract.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Drake Maye 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Yards. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.