Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T09:00:05.932Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET" [1]. According to the provider excerpt, the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the excerpt states that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Other exchanges or spot prices do not determine the outcome.
The listed end time is 2026-11-03T05:05:00.000Z, and the provider status is "active" [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should confirm the conversion themselves.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-11-02T09:00:05.932Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-02T09:21:23.492Z [1]. These are the times for this snapshot only. They do not show the market's status at the moment you read this, and the contract had not closed at either time.
The saved prices are Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The volume figure in the provider data is not a measure of liquidity or of how many traders participated, so it should not be used to judge how easily the position could be traded.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and it is complete for that event: the coverage record shows one market total and one included, with no partial sample [1]. Because only this contract was saved, there is no other Dogecoin contract in this dataset to compare against. Any comparison with a different platform, a different time window, or a different resolution source would be a comparison of different contracts, and differing prices across them would not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the two prices are equal, and it does not say whether trading activity has changed since the snapshot. It also contains no information about the Chainlink TWAP value during the window, so the outcome cannot be inferred from these materials. The provider's sample warning states that the listed markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1], which applies here because this is a binary Up or Down pair.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T09:00:05.932Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - November 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET," listed on Polymarket [1]. The contract asks whether the price of Dogecoin will rise or fall over one specific five-minute window. According to the listing, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The listing names Chainlink as the resolution source, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that the contract concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the DOGE/USD pair, and not prices from other sources or spot markets [1]. This means the outcome depends on one named data feed, so a reader comparing this contract with a price shown on an exchange or another site should check which source each one uses. The listing shows a provider status of active and an end time of 2026-11-03T05:05:00.000Z [1]. That end time is the scheduled close of the contract window as stated in the contract rules. It is not a record of when the contract resolved, and the material available here does not include a resolution result. The saved snapshot shows two outcomes, Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. These are observed prices at one moment, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The snapshot was observed at 2026-11-02T09:00:05.932Z and retrieved at 2026-11-02T09:21:23.502Z [1]. Prices on a short-window contract like this can change quickly, so the snapshot describes only that earlier moment.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP over the stated five-minute range finishes at or above the price at the start of that range [1]. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single instant, the result reflects the average path of the price during the period, compared with where the period began [1]. The rules also limit the measure to that data stream, so the contract does not track Dogecoin prices in general or on other venues [1]. The contract is one listed event with one market, and the saved sample includes every market for that event, so there are no omitted outcomes to compare against [1]. The sample does not show how many traders are active or how deep the market is, so the listed prices should be read only as a snapshot of this contract at the observation time.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether the contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Dogecoin over the stated range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to Down otherwise [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream provided by Chainlink, and the rules say the contract is not based on other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the 0.5 price for each outcome mean the outcomes are equally likely?
The snapshot shows Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 at the observed time [1]. These are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so the snapshot alone does not establish how likely either outcome is.
When does the contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-11-03T05:05:00.000Z [1]. This is the scheduled end of the contract window, and the available material does not show an actual resolution outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.