BNB Up or Down - October 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets do not count [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T15:40:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a separate event announcement. Resolution depends on the Chainlink data for the stated window, so the result is not determined by the listed end time alone.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the saved record was retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:24:31.318Z [1]. The provider status was active when recorded [1]. These are archived observations, so they do not show current prices.
At the observation time, the saved prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The 0.010 gap between them is small, but it describes only this saved moment. The record does not show trading volume, order book depth, or the number of participants, so it cannot be used to judge how liquid the market was.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record marks it as complete for that saved event, with no partial sample flag [1]. The sample warning also states that providers may not list every possible real-world outcome, so this record does not establish a full field of outcomes [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include any later price, the final TWAP values, or the outcome of this contract. It also does not explain why the prices were where they were. Because the contract is about a five-minute window, the outcome depends on Chainlink data that is not included in this snapshot. Comparing this contract with a different BNB window or another platform would require checking each contract's wording and closing time, since differences in those terms can change what is being measured.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto price contract on Polymarket that asks whether the price of BNB will rise or fall over a set window. The title, BNB Up or Down - October 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET, identifies a five-minute range on October 16 [1]. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over that range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The contract does not depend on the price of BNB on an exchange or on the price a trader sees on a screen. Its resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink [1]. The source states that the market is about the price according to that Chainlink data stream and not according to any other source or spot market [1]. This distinction matters because a TWAP averages prices across the window rather than reading a single moment, so the final result can differ from the price at the window's start even when the price moved noticeably during the range. The listed end time is 2026-10-16T15:40:00.000Z, which corresponds to the 11:40 AM ET close shown in the title [1]. That timestamp is the contract's listed end time, and the source describes the provider status as active [1]. The listed end time is a contract rule, not a report that the market has closed or resolved.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's average price over a short window, using a specific data feed rather than general market prices [1]. Traders following it are therefore tracking how the Chainlink TWAP compares with the price at the start of the window, as the contract defines it [1]. Because the outcome depends on that single data stream, the contract rules are the main reference for how it will be decided [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up?
The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the contract states that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
What is the listed end time of the contract?
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T15:40:00.000Z, which matches the 11:40 AM ET end of the window shown in the title [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
