US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?
PM $5.9K
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2
US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?
PM $5.9K
1
2
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $5.9K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the United States files a civil or criminal action against U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar in any United States federal court that seeks to revoke her naturalized citizenship, or whose success — whether by judgment, conviction, or otherwise — would revoke or require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The following will not qualify on their own: a civil or criminal action whose success would neither revoke nor require the revocation of her naturalized citizenship; a referral, an investigation, a subpoena, an executed search warrant, a grand jury proceeding, or a public statement of intent to seek denaturalization by any official. Voluntary dismissal, withdrawal, denial, or any other post-filing development will not affect resolution once a qualifying action has been filed. The primary resolution source will be the public docket of the relevant United States court (accessible via PACER) and/or an official announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The two contracts in this snapshot ask whether the United States will file a qualifying court action against U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar before a set deadline. The rules say the market resolves "Yes" if, "between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the United States files a civil or criminal action against U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar in any United States federal court that seeks to revoke her naturalized citizenship, or whose success" would revoke or require revocation of that citizenship [1].
The rules exclude several steps on their own, including "a referral, an investigation, a subpoena, an executed search warrant, a grand jury proceeding, or a public statement of intent to seek denaturalization" [1]. They also state that "Voluntary dismissal, withdrawal, denial, or any other post-filing development will not affect resolution once a qualifying action has been filed" [1]. The primary resolution source is "the public docket of the relevant United States court (accessible via PACER) and/or an official announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice," and "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
The two contracts share this wording but differ in deadline. One is titled "filed by December 31, 2026?" and lists an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. The other is titled "filed by March 31, 2027?" and lists 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z [1]. These listed times correspond to 11:59 PM ET on the named dates. Each contract's deadline is set by its own title and listed end time, not by any event announced in the source.
Reading the snapshot
The observation time is 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T01:29:06.981Z [1]. Those are the times recorded for this snapshot. The contracts were listed as active at that point [1].
The quoted prices were:
- Filed by December 31, 2026: Yes 0.13, No 0.87 [1]
- Filed by March 31, 2027: Yes 0.155, No 0.845 [1]
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The March 2027 contract has a higher Yes price, which reflects a longer window in these figures, but the snapshot does not explain why prices are set where they are. The sample includes all two saved markets for this Polymarket event, but the source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Volume and trader counts are not included, so they cannot be used to judge liquidity.
Both contracts come from one provider, so no cross-platform comparison is made here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include any news about filings, investigations, or statements about denaturalization. It also does not establish whether any qualifying action is pending or planned. A filing by a government office, a dismissal, or a later docket entry would be governed by the rules above, but this snapshot cannot show any of them.
References
- Polymarket: US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract asks whether the United States will file a civil or criminal action in a federal court that seeks to revoke the naturalized citizenship of U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar. The contract is part of a Polymarket event titled "US files Ilhan Omar denaturalization case by...?" [1]. Two contracts from this event are included in the saved sample: one asks whether a case is filed by December 31, 2026, and the other asks whether a case is filed by March 31, 2027 [1]. The rules define a qualifying action narrowly. The market resolves "Yes" if, between market creation and the specified deadline, the United States files an action in any federal court that would revoke her naturalized citizenship, or whose success would revoke or require revocation of that citizenship [1]. A civil or criminal action that would not have that effect does not count. Neither do a referral, an investigation, a subpoena, an executed search warrant, a grand jury proceeding, or a public statement of intent to seek denaturalization by any official [1]. The rules also state that a voluntary dismissal, withdrawal, denial, or other post-filing development does not affect resolution once a qualifying action has been filed [1]. The deadlines need to be read carefully. The contract rules set the listed end time for the March 2027 contract at 2027-04-01T03:59:00.000Z, which corresponds to 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2027 [1]. A date in the contract rules is a closing condition, not an announced event date. The evidence does not report any scheduled court date, filing, or announcement related to Omar. The saved snapshot of the provider event was observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T01:29:06.961Z [1]. Those times describe when the data was collected, not what has happened since. For resolution, the primary source is the public docket of the relevant United States court, accessible through PACER, and or an official announcement from the U.S. Department of Justice. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Historical Context
A Wikipedia article on deportations of U.S. citizens during the second presidency of Donald Trump describes documented arrests, detentions, and removals of American citizens tied to federal immigration enforcement. It states that as of October 2025 the U.S. government was not tracking the number of detained or missing citizens, while ProPublica had confirmed at least 170 citizen detentions by that time [2]. The article says that deporting U.S. citizens is illegal [2]. This background concerns citizens generally and does not mention Ilhan Omar or denaturalization proceedings, so it does not describe any case involving her [2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures one specific legal step: whether a qualifying federal court action to revoke naturalized citizenship is filed before a set deadline [1]. Its wording separates formal court filings from earlier stages such as investigations, referrals, or public statements of intent, which do not count on their own [1]. Because the rules also say a later dismissal does not undo a qualifying filing, a "Yes" outcome depends on the filing itself rather than on how the case proceeds [1]. The Yes and No prices in the saved snapshot are market observations at the stated times and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does an investigation or public statement of intent count toward a Yes resolution?
No. The rules state that a referral, an investigation, a subpoena, an executed search warrant, a grand jury proceeding, or a public statement of intent to seek denaturalization by any official does not qualify on its own [1].
What if a qualifying case is filed and later dismissed?
The rules say that voluntary dismissal, withdrawal, denial, or any other post-filing development will not affect resolution once a qualifying action has been filed [1].
What counts as a qualifying action?
A civil or criminal action filed by the United States in any United States federal court that seeks to revoke Omar's naturalized citizenship, or whose success would revoke or require revocation of it, qualifies [1].
How will the contract be resolved?
The primary resolution source is the public docket of the relevant United States court, accessible via PACER, and or an official Department of Justice announcement. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
