Dogecoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T03:00:06.030Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks whether Dogecoin will finish a short window higher or lower than where it started. According to the excerpt, the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The title gives the window as November 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET [1].
The resolution source is narrow. The excerpt specifies that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] A contract with similar wording on another platform, or a different averaging window, would not measure the same thing.
Reading the snapshot
The saved market shows two outcomes, Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. The snapshot was observed at 2026-11-01T03:00:06.030Z and retrieved at 2026-11-01T03:28:04.827Z [1]. These are provider and retrieval times for this record only. They do not establish the price at any later moment.
The listed end time is 2026-11-01T21:15:00.000Z, and the provider status at retrieval was "active" [1]. The end time is the contract's listed close, not a confirmed resolution. The record does not show a resolved outcome.
A price of 0.5 for each side is a quoted snapshot, not an executable quote or a verified probability. The sample contains one market from one event, and the coverage record marks it as complete for that saved event: totalMarkets is 1, includedMarkets is 1, and partialSample is false [1]. Because only one market was saved, there is no cross-platform or multi-contract comparison to draw from this record.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why either side is priced where it is, how many traders hold each view, or whether the price has changed since the snapshot. Volume and liquidity are not included in this summary, so the depth of the market cannot be judged from it.
The sample warning states that the providers listing does not establish every possible real-world outcome [1]. Nothing here shows how the window will actually trade, or whether the outcome will match either side's current price.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T03:00:06.030Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term binary contract on Polymarket titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - November 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET." The contract asks whether the price of Dogecoin will move up or down over one specific five-minute window. It belongs to the crypto category and is listed as active [1]. The rules define the outcome by a time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range named in the title. If that TWAP is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the range, the market resolves to "Up." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the Chainlink TWAP data stream for the DOGE/USD pair, not other sources or spot markets [1]. This means the result depends on that specific data feed rather than on the price shown on any exchange. The listed end time is 2026-11-01 21:15 UTC [1]. That is the scheduled close of the contract window, not a record of when the outcome was determined. The title's 4:10PM to 4:15PM ET range is the period the TWAP is measured over [1]. The current price snapshot in this article was taken at a fixed observation time of 2026-11-01 03:00:06 UTC, which is earlier than the retrieval of this page. Both outcomes were priced at 0.5 at that moment [1]. A snapshot like this reflects the market at one point in time and does not show how the price has changed since. It is not an executable quote, and it should not be read as a verified probability that Dogecoin will rise.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Dogecoin's price within one defined window, relative to the TWAP data stream named in its rules [1]. Because the rules compare the average price over the window with the price at the start of that window, the result can differ from a comparison of the start and end prices alone. The outcome is tied to the Chainlink feed specifically, so the contract isolates one data source's measurement. Traders and readers can use the rules to understand exactly what event the price is meant to reflect [1]. A price near 0.5 in a binary contract like this one only reflects the market's pricing at a given time and does not establish which direction is more likely.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this market decide whether it resolves Up or Down?
It compares the Chainlink time-weighted average price of Dogecoin over the title's time range with the price at the beginning of that range. An average at or above the starting price resolves Up, and anything lower resolves Down [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The rules specify the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP data stream and state that other sources and spot markets are not used for resolution [1].
Does the listed end time mean the outcome is already known?
No. The listed end time is 2026-11-01 21:15 UTC, which is the scheduled close of the window [1]. The source describes the rules and listed times but does not report a resolved result.
What do the displayed prices of 0.5 for Up and Down mean?
They are a snapshot taken at 2026-11-01 03:00:06 UTC showing both outcomes at 0.5 [1]. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not show how the market has moved since that time [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.