Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event contains five separate Polymarket contracts on Jayden Reed's receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. Each asks whether his total "equals or exceeds the listed number" [1]. The thresholds are 249.5, 449.5, 649.5, 849.5, and 1,049.5 yards. Each contract resolves "No" if he does not play in the regular season for any reason [1].

The rules also cover disruption. If the season is shortened or ends early, the outcome uses "available official data for completed games" [1]. If the season is cancelled, or is postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the yardage cannot be determined, the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. The resolution source is "official information from the NFL," though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].

The listed end time is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time in the contract data, not an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z and retrieved at 2026-10-18T05:59:55.017Z [1]. They describe that moment only and are not executable quotes.

At the observed time, the Yes prices were 0.115 for 249.5 yards, 0.095 for 849.5 yards, 0.09 for 649.5 yards, 0.085 for 1,049.5 yards, and 0.075 for 449.5 yards. The No prices were 0.885, 0.905, 0.91, 0.915, and 0.925 in the same order [1]. The 249.5 contract had the highest Yes price in this sample, and the 449.5 contract had the lowest. The ordering of the list reflects the saved sample rules, not a ranking of likelihood.

Each threshold is its own contract. They are not successive outcomes of one question, so their prices should not be summed, averaged, or treated as a probability distribution. Yes prices on different thresholds can differ without implying an arbitrage opportunity. The saved data also provides no volume or trader information that would indicate liquidity, and this summary does not explain why prices were where they were.

What remains uncertain

The sample includes all five saved markets for this event, and the record marks it as not partial [1]. The source also states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Other thresholds may exist outside this record.

The evidence does not show prices after the observation time, the season's progress, Reed's roster status, or any news affecting his expected usage. Because the record was retrieved about three hours after observation, these prices should not be described as current. The contracts remain open in the saved record, and the actual resolution depends on the rules above.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Jayden Reed 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Yards. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z.