Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Next Canadian federal election winner?

Total Volume

$67.09

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Next Canadian federal election winner?

Vol

$67.09

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $67.09

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $67.09

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?	Kalshi	60%
Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?	Kalshi	38%
Will New Democratic Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

60%

Top Probability

$67.09

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

in 2029 If X wins the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Next Canadian federal election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2029

If X wins the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. This market 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If New Democratic Party wins the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $67
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will New Democratic Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2030): Vol $56
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2030): Vol $2
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 15, 2030): Vol $9
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Next Canadian federal election winner?

Volume$67.09

Markets3

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KALSHI

Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

If Liberal Party wins the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same

KALSHI

Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 38.0¢No 62.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

If Conservative Party wins the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the

KALSHI

Will New Democratic Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.0¢No 97.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will New Democratic Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

If New Democratic Party wins the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have th

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34¢

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Next Canadian federal election winner?

Next Canadian federal election winner?

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Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Next Canadian federal election winner?

Markets (3)

Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will New Democratic Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will New Democratic Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

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Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Next Canadian federal election winner?

Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will Liberal Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will Conservative Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will New Democratic Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

Will New Democratic Party win the next Canadian federal election for the House of Commons?

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