Kansas City vs Denver: 4th Quarter Spread
K 0 contracts
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11
Kansas City vs Denver: 4th Quarter Spread
K 0 contracts
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Kansas City wins by over 1.5 points at 39.5%.
Kalshi
- Kansas City wins by over 1.5 points39.5%
- Kansas City wins by over 2.5 points38.5%
- Denver wins by over 2.5 points38%
- Denver wins by over 3.5 points29.5%
- Kansas City wins by over 3.5 points29%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
KC vs DEN (Nov 1) If Kansas City wins by more than X points in the 4th Quarter, excluding overtime, of the Kansas City vs Denver Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the 4th Quarter, excluding overtime, of play count towards this market. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event asks about the fourth quarter only. Each market resolves to Yes if one team wins that quarter by more than a stated number of points. The rules say that "If Kansas City wins by more than X points in the 4th Quarter, excluding overtime, of the Kansas City vs Denver Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." Only fourth-quarter points, excluding overtime, count [1]. Because the wording refers to a game "originally scheduled" for November 1, the rules do not by themselves confirm the game's final date or whether it was played as scheduled.
The saved event lists an end date of 2026-11-03T21:25:00Z for each market. The excerpt, however, gives "Listed end time: not supplied" and says the market "will close and expire after the event occurs" [1]. The listed end date is therefore a provider field, not a confirmed resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-28T03:00:06Z. The source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T04:52:37Z. These prices describe that earlier provider snapshot, not live trading now [1].
All 11 saved markets for this event are included, and the sample is not partial. The selection rule, however, orders markets by Yes price, so the list reflects the saved provider event only and does not show every possible real-world outcome [1].
Yes prices in the snapshot include 0.40 for Kansas City winning by more than 1.5 points, 0.30 for more than 2.5 points, and 0.29 for Denver winning by more than 2.5 points. Lower thresholds for Denver are not included in the saved list, so the set is not symmetrical. Prices range from 0.065 (Denver by more than 10.5) to 0.40.
These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Different thresholds are separate contracts, so price differences between them do not by themselves show an arbitrage opportunity. The supplied data does not include volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants agree.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price was set or changed. It does not include the game's status after the snapshot, any reschedule, or the actual fourth-quarter result. The listed end time and the resolution date are not confirmed by the supplied material. Readers should check the current provider page and the official rules before drawing conclusions.
References
- Kalshi: Kansas City vs Denver: 4th Quarter Spread . Provider data observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi contract tied to the Kansas City vs Denver Pro Football game that was originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 [1]. The contract does not ask who wins the game. It asks whether one team wins the fourth quarter by more than a specified number of points. The rules state that if Kansas City wins by more than X points in the 4th Quarter, excluding overtime, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The event listing uses a parallel structure for Denver, with separate threshold markets for each team. The rules limit scoring to the fourth quarter. Only points scored during the 4th Quarter, excluding overtime, count toward the market [1]. A team's full-game margin, its first-half performance, and any overtime points are outside the measured period. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated with the governing league, and that trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners [1]. The saved market sample shows eleven threshold contracts for this event, with all eleven included in the saved sample [1]. Each contract is labeled with a margin threshold, such as Kansas City winning the fourth quarter by over 1.5 points or Denver winning it by over 10.5 points [1]. The provider's listed status for the event was active, and no listed end time was supplied [1].
Historical Context
The supplied sources describe the Kansas City Chiefs franchise in general terms. The team is a professional American football club based in Kansas City, Missouri, and competes in the National Football League as a member of the American Football Conference West division. Its home games are played at Arrowhead Stadium [3]. The same article notes that a new stadium is slated to open in 2031 [3]. The supplied Wikipedia article on the 2013 Kansas City Chiefs season is historical background only and does not describe the 2026 game or this contract. That season was the team's 44th in the NFL and its first under head coach Andy Reid and general manager John Dorsey. The team started 9-0 that year before losing five of its last seven games [2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow scoring outcome: the margin of points scored in one quarter of a single game. Because its resolution depends only on fourth-quarter points, excluding overtime, it is a different question from the final score or the full-game spread [1]. Traders following the market can compare the threshold ladder, from low margins to high margins, to see how the displayed prices change across thresholds [1]. The price snapshot is a point-in-time record and should not be read as a current quote. In the saved data, Kansas City winning the fourth quarter by over 1.5 points was priced at 0.40 for Yes, while the same team winning by over 10.5 points was priced at 0.07 for Yes [1]. Denver's comparable thresholds were priced at 0.19 for over 6.5 points and 0.065 for over 10.5 points [1]. These figures are snapshots and not executable quotes, and they should not be treated as verified probabilities. The saved volume data was not supplied, so this entry does not describe trading activity or the number of participants. The contract closes after the event occurs [1]. The saved end date of November 3, 2026 appears in the market data, but the rules say the market closes after the event occurs, and the provider listed no end time [1]. That date should be read as a contract field, not as confirmation that the game will be played on any particular day.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract actually measure?
It measures whether one team wins the fourth quarter by more than a stated number of points. The rules say that if Kansas City wins by more than X points in the 4th Quarter, excluding overtime, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Only points scored during the fourth quarter, excluding overtime, count [1].
Does a Denver threshold market exist in the saved sample?
Yes. The saved sample includes Denver threshold markets at 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, and 10.5 points, and the sample includes all eleven saved markets for the event [1]. The saved sample does not include a Denver market at 1.5 points, but that absence does not mean that outcome has any particular price or probability.
Is the saved price the current price?
No. The entry reflects a dated provider snapshot taken from the provider event and is not an executable quote or verified probability [1]. Prices may have changed since the snapshot.
Is the November 3 date when the game will be played?
No. The contract lists November 3, 2026 as an end date in the saved market data, but the rules say the market closes after the event occurs [1]. The rules also describe the game as originally scheduled for November 1, 2026 [1], so the saved date should not be read as confirmation of the game's timing.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
