Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T03:00:05.865Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract is a short-window price question about Hyperliquid. It resolves to "Up" if "the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1]. The window named in the title is November 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET, and the listed end time is 2026-11-02T04:55:00.000Z [1].
The source names a specific resolution feed: "the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream" [1]. It also states that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Any comparison with another platform or venue should account for this wording. A contract on a different price source, a different averaging method, or a different time window would not measure the same thing, even if the asset name is similar.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-11-02T03:00:05.865Z and retrieved at 2026-11-02T04:25:48.828Z [1]. The Polymarket listing shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot values from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The two prices sum to 1.000, so the saved binary pair is internally consistent. The gap between them is small, at 0.010 in price terms. This snapshot does not explain why the prices sat where they did, and it does not show how many participants held either side. Volume, which the sample does not report here, would not indicate liquidity or trader count anyway.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. Coverage is recorded as one total market with one included, and the sample is not partial [1]. This means no other outcomes from this event were omitted. The source also notes that the providers may not list every possible real-world outcome, and this sample makes no claim beyond the saved event.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not show the current price, because the observation time is earlier than the retrieval time and both are in the past relative to today's date of 2026-11-02T04:25:48.828Z. The source's "active" status reflects the provider record at retrieval, not a live check. The listed end time of 04:55 UTC was still ahead of the retrieval time, but the evidence does not show whether trading continued after the snapshot.
The evidence also does not show the actual outcome. Resolution depends on the Chainlink TWAP comparison described above, and no settlement result appears in the supplied material. Readers should not treat the 0.505 price as a forecast of that result.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T03:00:05.865Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window price contract on Hyperliquid's HYPE/USD price, listed on Polymarket with the title "Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether the asset's price over that five-minute window will end higher than where it started. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution is based on a specific data feed rather than on whatever price appears on exchanges. The rules name Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream, not other sources or spot markets [1]. Two contracts with similar titles could therefore settle differently if they relied on different feeds, so the named source matters as much as the time window. The provider record lists the contract's end time as 2026-11-02T04:55:00.000Z, with a status of active when it was retrieved [1]. That end time is a contract closing time taken from the listing. It is not a separate announced event or deadline. The record reflects the provider's data at the time it was retrieved, and it does not show how the contract has traded since then.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the HYPE/USD price, as recorded by the Chainlink TWAP stream, finishes the stated five-minute window at or above its starting level [1]. Because it uses a time-weighted average rather than a single trade, short spikes in the window have less effect than they would under a last-trade rule, and the result depends on the feed's averaging method and timing [1]. Traders can use the prices of the Up and Down outcomes to see how the market currently values each result, but a price is a snapshot and not a guaranteed outcome or an executable quote [1]. Anyone reading the contract should check the named data stream, since the rules say other sources do not determine the result [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome require?
The market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window [1].
What does the Down outcome require?
If the condition for Up is not met, the market resolves to Down [1].
Which price source decides the result?
The rules name Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.