Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

Total Volume

$25.87K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

Vol

$25.87K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $25.87K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $25.87K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	22%
Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	12%
Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	4%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

22%

Top Probability

$25.87K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Chair of the Federal Reserve If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X "try to fire" includes any of the following: The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; Publicly states, in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media, that he has fired or decided to

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Chair of the Federal Reserve

If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. X "try to fire" includes any of the following: The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termination; Directs any Cabinet member or senior official to terminate the person; Publicly states, in a speech, interview, press conference, or verified social media, that he has fired or decided to

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A "try to fire" includes any of the following:

The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termin"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $25.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $9.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 1, 2027): Vol $12.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 12.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 88.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

Volume$25.87K

Markets3

3 of 3

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?

If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A "try to fire" includes any of the following: The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termin

KALSHI

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.0¢No 88.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?

If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A "try to fire" includes any of the following: The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termin

KALSHI

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?

If the President of the United States has tried to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: A "try to fire" includes any of the following: The President signs an executive order, memorandum, or other official document stating termin

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

13¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/MX33yb" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

Markets (3)

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Will Trump try to fire Kevin Warsh?

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget