Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket event, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET" [1]. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is "greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
Readers comparing this with other Bitcoin contracts should check the wording closely. A contract that refers to a spot price, a different data feed, or a different time window measures something different, so its price should not be read as a substitute for this one.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation shows two outcomes: "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are prices from a snapshot, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The observation time was 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T18:58:20.439Z [1]. The record therefore describes conditions at the observation time, not necessarily conditions now. The provider lists the contract as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-27T14:00:00.000Z [1].
The sample is one market from one event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. Because all saved markets for this event are included, no outcome has been omitted from this record. The saved data does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many traders participated.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit near 0.50, and it does not show any news, trader activity, or price movement over time. It also does not establish how the contract will settle, since the resolution outcome is not in the record. A price gap between this contract and any other market should not be treated as an opportunity without accounting for differences in wording, data source, time window, and listed close time.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-duration Bitcoin price contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET". The contract is listed on Polymarket and falls in the Crypto category [1]. Its question is whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over a fifteen-minute window. The provider's rules say the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, identified in the rules as a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not the price reported by any other source or spot market [1]. This means that a move on a different exchange or price feed does not, by itself, determine the outcome. Traders reading the contract should check the Chainlink stream and the stated time window rather than general news coverage of Bitcoin. The provider lists the contract's end time as 14:00 UTC on October 27, 2026 [1]. The title's 9:45 to 10:00 AM ET window corresponds to that closing point. The closing time is the end of the contract window, not a claim about when the result has been determined or published. The record was observed at 18:00 UTC on October 26, 2026 and retrieved at 18:58 UTC the same day, when the contract's status was recorded as active [1]. That status describes the saved snapshot only.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price across a short fixed window, as recorded in one specific data stream. Because the rules compare the time-weighted average over the window with the price at the window's start, the result depends on the averaged path of the price during the window and not only on its final value [1]. A contract that asks whether a price is above or below a reference level at a single moment would be resolved differently. The rules also limit the reference to Chainlink's stream, so a reader who wants to understand the result needs to know which feed the provider uses [1]. The saved market data shows a single outcome for this event, Up, with a snapshot price of 0.505, and Down, with a snapshot price of 0.495 [1]. These prices were recorded at the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They should not be read as a forecast of Bitcoin's direction.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves to Up or Down?
The contract resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which price source does the contract use?
The rules name Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source, and they say that other sources or spot markets are not used for this contract [1].
When does the contract end?
The provider lists the end time as 14:00 UTC on October 27, 2026, which corresponds to the 10:00 AM ET close in the title [1].
Are the prices shown for this contract a probability of Bitcoin rising?
The recorded prices are snapshots from the observation time. The provider's data does not establish them as verified probabilities or as prices a trader could execute at [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.