Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET" [1]. Under the contract rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, for the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream named in the rules. The source also states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T17:15:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, so readers should check how the title window relates to the UTC end time rather than assume they match.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation time is 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-31T06:09:48.635Z [1]. Both are earlier than the listed contract end time, and this snapshot should not be read as a live view. The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the two listed outcomes sum to 1.00, the saved prices show no gap between them, but they do not show how an order would fill.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record lists one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. This does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome, but no other outcome is saved for this event. The record includes no volume or trader count, so the snapshot says nothing about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the ETH price at the start of the time range, the price during the window, or the reasons the quoted prices stand where they do. The provider status is recorded as active in the saved source [1], but that record does not confirm the status at the time of reading. No actual resolution appears in the evidence. Readers comparing this contract with contracts on other platforms should first check the wording, time window, and resolution source, since these may differ. Price differences between such contracts should not be treated as an opportunity without that comparison.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T03:00:05.892Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window crypto contract on Polymarket titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET" [1]. It asks whether Ethereum's price will move up or down over one five-minute window. According to the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink, specifically its ETH/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream for the ETH/USD pair, not prices from other sources or spot markets [1]. This means the outcome is determined by that one data feed, even if other exchanges or venues show different prices at the same time. The contract record shows a listed end time of 2026-10-31T17:15:00Z and a provider status of active [1]. The saved observation for this event was taken at 2026-10-31T03:00:05Z, and the source was retrieved later that morning [1]. Those times describe when the provider data was recorded. They do not mean the window has opened or closed, and they do not show the contract's current state.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow question: whether the time-weighted average of the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream over the stated five-minute window is at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the rule compares an average over the window with the starting price, the result depends on how the price moves across the whole interval, not only on where it ends. The contract is therefore a bet on the feed's reading for that exact period, and the rules specify that other data sources do not determine the result [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price data is used for resolution?
The resolution source is the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say the market is about that feed and not about other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time in the contract record is 2026-10-31T17:15:00Z, and the title refers to the 1:10PM to 1:15PM ET window [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.