Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market asks whether Bitcoin finishes a short window higher or lower. The source says it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise, it "will resolve to "Down."" [1] The rules specify the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream and state that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] The listed end time is 2026-10-27T01:10:00.000Z [1]. Readers comparing contracts should check the window wording and this close time, because a similar Bitcoin title with a different window or data source would measure something else.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-26T06:43:05.161Z [1]. The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.000 in this record, but that does not show that the market is still trading at those levels.
The sample contains one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows that all saved markets for this event were included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. Because there is only one contract, no ranking or comparison across contracts is possible from this evidence. The provider status is listed as active [1], but that describes the saved record only.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices sit where they do, how many participants hold either side, or how the price has changed since observation. It also does not establish the actual resolution, which depends on the TWAP data for the stated window after the contract closes. The sample warning notes that the providers do not establish a complete list of every possible real-world outcome [1]. This binary contract lists only Up and Down, so no omitted outcome is shown here.
Price differences between Bitcoin contracts with different wording, windows, or data sources do not by themselves identify an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-interval price market on Bitcoin. Its title, Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET, names a five-minute window, and the contract asks whether Bitcoin's price during that window will finish at or above where it started. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The measurement is an average over time rather than a single trade. Because the comparison uses a time-weighted average, a brief spike or drop at one moment does not decide the outcome on its own. The result depends on the average across the whole window compared with the starting price [1]. The contract also specifies its data source. Resolution uses the BTC/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink, with the 60-second stream identified in the contract's resolution source. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. A trader reading spot prices on an exchange could therefore see a different picture from the one the contract uses. The listed end time for this event is 2026-10-27T01:10:00.000Z, which corresponds to 9:10 PM ET on October 26 [1]. That end time is the scheduled close of the contract window as written in the rules. It is not a separate announcement or a statement about what has happened since.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a five-minute window, as defined by a time-weighted average from a named Chainlink data stream. Its value to readers lies in understanding exactly what counts as an Up or Down result: the window in the title, the starting price at the beginning of that window, the averaged price across the window, and the specified Chainlink stream [1]. Any price shown for the contract reflects the market's trading at a moment in time and is separate from how the outcome is determined.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether the contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin across the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream provided by Chainlink. The contract states that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
What time window does this contract cover?
The title identifies the window as 9:05PM to 9:10PM ET on October 26. The listed end time in the provider data is 2026-10-27T01:10:00.000Z [1].
Does a price move at a single instant determine the result?
No. The contract uses a time-weighted average over the window, so the comparison is between that average and the starting price rather than a single trade at one moment [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.