M15 Szabolcsveresmart: Lukas Pokorny vs Vardan Manukyan
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M15 Szabolcsveresmart: Lukas Pokorny vs Vardan Manukyan
PM $0
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 16, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market refers to the tennis match between Lukas Pokorny and Vardan Manukyan in the M15 Szabolcsveresmart, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Lukas Pokorny' if Lukas Pokorny advances against Vardan Manukyan. This market will resolve to 'Vardan Manukyan' if Vardan Manukyan advances against Lukas Pokorny. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event is the tennis match between Lukas Pokorny and Vardan Manukyan in the M15 Szabolcsveresmart Main Draw, listed on Polymarket [1]. The main contract resolves to the player who advances. The source says that if the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or has no determined winner by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. A walkover also resolves 50-50, while a retirement, default, or disqualification after the match begins resolves to the player who advances [1].
The source names the International Tennis Federation as the primary resolution source and says a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-23T08:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the provider's listed close, not a confirmed match date. The source describes the match as "originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 4:00AM ET" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T04:14:43.095Z [1]. These prices describe that observation window only and are not live quotes.
The main match contract shows Lukas Pokorny at 0.87 and Vardan Manukyan at 0.13 [1]. The two set handicap contracts are separate markets and should not be merged. In the first, Pokorny (-1.5) is priced at 0.605 and Manukyan (+1.5) at 0.395 [1]. In the second, Manukyan (-1.5) is priced at 0.265 and Pokorny (+1.5) at 0.735 [1]. Each handicap market's two outcomes sum to 1.00 on their own, but the two handicap markets do not form one combined distribution, and their differing wording should be read carefully.
The source records three saved markets, all included, with partialSample set to false [1]. The sample warning says this does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1]. The saved data does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not show whether the match has been played, delayed, or canceled, and the evidence contains no post-observation updates. The saved prices are not executable quotes, and they do not verify a probability. The differing prices across contracts reflect different wording and are not an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: M15 Szabolcsveresmart: Lukas Pokorny vs Vardan Manukyan. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Polymarket market on a men's tennis match in the M15 Szabolcsveresmart Main Draw, between Lukas Pokorny and Vardan Manukyan. The match was originally scheduled for October 16, 2026 at 4:00 AM ET [1]. The market asks which player will advance from this match. The contract names Lukas Pokorny as the outcome if he advances against Vardan Manukyan, and Vardan Manukyan as the outcome if he advances against Lukas Pokorny [1]. The contract also sets out how unusual results are handled. If the match is canceled, ends in a tie, or has no determined winner by October 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. If the match starts but is not completed because a player retires, defaults, or is disqualified, the market resolves to the player who advances [1]. A walkover, where one player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically, also resolves 50-50 [1]. The listed end time for the event is October 23, 2026 at 08:00 UTC, and the contract's status at retrieval was active [1]. The primary resolution source is official information from the International Tennis Federation, and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The saved event includes three related contracts: one on the match winner and two set handicap contracts, each showing one player with a minus 1.5 set margin and the other with a plus 1.5 margin [1]. These contracts share the same event and end time, but each has its own rules and prices.
Historical Context
The supplied background describes the tour that hosts this event rather than the match itself. The 2026 ITF Men's World Tennis Tour is the 2026 edition of a second-tier men's professional tour organized by the International Tennis Federation, one tier below the ATP Challenger Tour, with tournaments offering prize money from $15,000 to $25,000 [2]. This description is general background and does not confirm the status, schedule, or result of this specific match.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which of two named players advances from a single scheduled match. Its rules matter because the outcome depends on the match being played and decided within the stated window. A canceled match, a tie, or a result not determined by October 30, 2026 leads to a 50-50 resolution rather than a winner [1]. A retirement or disqualification after the match begins still resolves to the player who advances [1]. The contract's reliance on ITF information, with credible reporting as a possible supplement, sets the basis for judging the outcome [1]. The prices shown on the platform are snapshots at the time they were recorded. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of either player winning.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Who determines how this market resolves?
The primary resolution source is official information from the International Tennis Federation. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
What happens if the match is canceled or not played?
If the match is canceled, meaning not played at all, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. A walkover, where one player withdraws before the start, also resolves 50-50 [1].
What happens if a player retires during the match?
If the match begins but is not completed because a player retires, defaults, or is disqualified, the market resolves to the player who advances [1].
What is the deadline for a winner to be determined?
If no winner has been determined by October 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, which is 14 days after the scheduled start, the market resolves 50-50 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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