ZCash Up or Down - October 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
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ZCash Up or Down - October 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of ZCash, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ZEC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/zec-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ZEC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a short-window contract on the ZEC/USD price. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of ZCash, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink ZEC/USD TWAP data stream. The rules state that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ZEC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Anyone comparing this contract with exchange quotes or other price feeds should note that those sources do not determine the outcome.
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T07:45:00.000Z [1]. This is a closing time in the contract record. It is not an announced event, and the evidence does not show a resolution. The provider status is "active" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z and retrieved at 2026-10-24T13:25:51.255Z [1]. These are different moments. The prices describe the observation time, roughly 85 minutes before retrieval, and not the moment you are reading this. The prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
At observation, the Up outcome was priced at 0.5 and the Down outcome at 0.5 [1]. The two snapshot prices are equal, so the record shows no difference between them at that time.
The sample covers one saved market. The coverage record lists one total market, one included, with partial sample set to false [1]. The provider notes that the saved listing does not establish that it contains every possible real-world outcome [1]. For this event, the record shows no omitted outcome. This is a single binary contract, so there is no cross-platform or cross-event comparison to make.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants, so it cannot show how deep the market is or how many people hold each view. It also does not explain why the prices are where they are. No later prices appear in the record, so the evidence cannot show how the prices changed after observation or how the TWAP compares with its starting price.
References
- Polymarket: ZCash Up or Down - October 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window price contract on Polymarket titled "ZCash Up or Down - October 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET." It asks whether the price of ZCash, measured in U.S. dollars, will rise or fall over one five-minute interval. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of ZCash over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution rules specify that the price is the ZEC/USD TWAP from Chainlink's data stream, not any other source or spot market [1]. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-25T07:45:00.000Z, which corresponds to the close of the 3:40 to 3:45 AM ET window [1]. The saved record was observed at 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z and retrieved at 2026-10-24T13:25:51.301Z. The provider's status field showed the market as active in that record [1]. Because the contract closes after the observation, the record describes conditions at that earlier time and does not show how the market stands now. The saved snapshot lists two outcomes, Up and Down, each priced at 0.5 [1]. These are observed prices from a single moment, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of either outcome. The contract's terms define the outcome only through the TWAP comparison described above.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether ZCash's price, as reported by the Chainlink ZEC/USD TWAP data stream, finishes the five-minute window at or above its starting level [1]. Because it uses a time-weighted average rather than a single trade price, the result depends on the average over the interval compared with the price at the start of the interval [1]. Traders who look at this contract are therefore focused on a very short directional move in one specific data feed, and the contract's terms say that other sources and spot markets do not determine the result [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" resolution mean for this contract?
The market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of ZCash over the 3:40 to 3:45 AM ET range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
What does a "Down" resolution mean?
The market resolves to "Down" if the TWAP over the stated range is not greater than or equal to the starting price, since the rules describe "Down" as the outcome otherwise [1].
Which price data determines the outcome?
The outcome is determined by the ZEC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Do the prices on this contract show the likelihood of each outcome?
The saved prices are a snapshot of 0.5 for each outcome at one observation time [1]. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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