Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Will PP and Vox win 50% of the vote in Spain's election?

Total Volume

$4.58K

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Will PP and Vox win 50% of the vote in Spain's election?

Vol

$4.58K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $4.58K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $4.58K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Kalshi	65%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

65%

Top Probability

$4.58K

Volume

Markets

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About This Event

Vote Percent - PP and Vox combined If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by the People's Party and Vox combined in the 2026 Spanish general election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is the combined share of the vote received by the People's Party and Vox in the election to the Congress of Deputies. It is calculated as ((total votes received by the People's Party + total votes received by Vox) ÷ total valid votes cast

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will PP and Vox win 50% of the vote in Spain's election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - PP and Vox combined

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by the People's Party and Vox combined in the 2026 Spanish general election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is the combined share of the vote received by the People's Party and Vox in the election to the Congress of Deputies. It is calculated as ((total votes received by the People's Party + total votes received by Vox) ÷ total valid votes cast

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by the People's Party and Vox combined in the 2026 Spanish general election is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is the combined share of the vote received by the People'"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the People's Party and Vox combined receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 29, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 64.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 35.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections