This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Match Payers above ___ in Q1?

Name: Match Payers above ___ in Q1?
End: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$228.00

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Match Payers above ___ in Q1?

Vol

$228.00

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $228.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $228.00

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Match Payers above 13.6 million in Q1?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Match Payers above 13.6 million in Q1?	Poly	50%
Match Payers above 13.8 million in Q1?	Poly	49%
Match Payers above 14.0 million in Q1?	Poly	42%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

50%

Top Probability

$228.00

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Match Group's total number of paying users (Payers) for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If Match Group's official earnings materials for Q1 2026 are released and the total number of payin

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Match Payers above ___ in Q1?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 5, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if Match Group's total number of paying users (Payers) for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.

If Match Group's official earnings materials for Q1 2026 are released and the total number of payin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Match Group's total number of paying users (Payers) for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The specified metric will be considered as "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $228
* **Total Liquidity:** $14
* **Activity Level:** High Turnover (Vol/Liq Ratio: 15.82)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Match Payers above 13.6 million in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Match Payers above 13.8 million in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 48.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Match Payers above 14.0 million in Q1?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 5, 2026): Vol $218
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance