IL-06 House Election Winner
PM $43.7K
1
2
IL-06 House Election Winner
PM $43.7K
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Sean Casten (D) at 96.3%.
Polymarket
- Sean Casten (D)96.3%
- Niki Conforti (R)2.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $43.7K
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T06:00:06.244Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied source describes a market that "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections" [1]. The source states that the midterm elections "will take place on November 3, 2026" [1]. Party is determined by "their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources" [1]. The excerpt lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. Because resolution is tied to when the races are conclusively called, readers should not treat the listed end time as the date the outcome becomes known. The excerpt does not explain how that timing would work in practice.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-15T06:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 06:32:28Z the same day [1]. These are records of when the data was captured. They are not live quotes, and they do not show what the prices are now.
The sample contains two separate contracts from one provider event. One asks whether the Democratic Party will win the seat, with a Yes price of 0.9665 and a No price of 0.0335 [1]. The other asks whether the Republican Party will win, with a Yes price of 0.0245 and a No price of 0.9755 [1]. Each contract is shown on its own terms. The two Yes prices should not be combined into a single probability, because the sample does not establish that these are the only possible outcomes.
Both contracts share the same listed end time [1]. The supplied data does not include trading volume, so this snapshot cannot speak to liquidity or to how many people are trading.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record reports two of two saved markets, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The source also warns that "All saved markets for these events are included. This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Readers should not assume that an omitted outcome, such as a third-party or independent candidate, would have a lower price.
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and no news or other context is supplied. Prices are not verified probabilities or executable quotes, and differences in price between contracts do not by themselves indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: IL-06 House Election Winner. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T06:00:06.244Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers the Polymarket contract "IL-06 House Election Winner," which asks which party will win the U.S. House seat for Illinois's 6th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The contract's rules state that it "will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins" that seat, and they set the 2026 midterm elections for November 3, 2026 [1]. The category is politics. The rules say a candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the market's resolution sources [1]. The rules also address candidates without a ballot-listed affiliation, but the supplied excerpt is cut off before that provision is complete, so this article does not describe how such a case would be handled. The saved event contains two markets. One asks whether the Democratic Party will win the seat and the other asks whether the Republican Party will win it. Each market has a Yes and a No outcome, so the two prices in each market are complementary within that market [1]. Because every saved market for this event is included, the two-market set is complete as saved. The saved data, however, reflects only the parties named in these two markets, and the provider does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed. Any other party or outcome is therefore not part of this sample, and no conclusion should be drawn about outcomes that are absent. The event is listed as active in the provider data, with a listed end time of November 4, 2026 at 04:59 UTC [1]. That time appears in the contract rules as a listed end time. It is not evidence that any race has been called or that a result has been announced.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single, specific outcome: which party holds the Illinois 6th district U.S. House seat after the 2026 midterm elections [1]. Because it is tied to one district rather than a national result, its resolution depends on the outcome of that one race. The rules link resolution to the party of the winner and to how that party is determined at the time the 2026 House races are conclusively called [1]. A reader interested in how the contract is designed should focus on those rule terms, since the exact wording controls how the market settles.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the IL-06 contract actually pay out on?
It resolves according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections, using the party determined by the candidate's ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by the resolution sources [1].
Is the November 4, 2026 end time the date the winner will be announced?
No. The listed end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00 UTC appears in the provider data for this event [1]. The contract rules tie resolution to when the House races are conclusively called, and the supplied evidence does not establish when that call will occur or that any result has been announced.
Do the prices show which party is likely to win?
The prices are snapshots from the provider's saved data and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They reflect the market's prices at the observation time in the saved event [1], and they should not be read as confirmed forecasts of the race.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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