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Event GroupPOLYMARKETSports

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

Name: Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A
End: 2026-05-04T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$122.45

Events

Markets

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Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

Vol

$122.45

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $122.45

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $122.45

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

20 markets tracked

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

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Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A	Poly	77%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner	Poly	71%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner	Poly	71%
Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?	Poly	53%
Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?	Poly	53%
Game 1: Ends in Daytime?	Poly	52%
Game 2: Ends in Daytime?	Poly	52%
Game 3: Ends in Daytime?	Poly	52%
Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?	Poly	51%
Game 3: Any Player Rampage?	Poly	51%
Games Total: Over/Under 2.5	Poly	50%
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)	Poly	50%
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan?	Poly	19%
Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan?	Poly	19%
Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill?	Poly	18%
Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill?	Poly	18%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?	Poly	16%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?	Poly	16%
Game 1: Any Player Rampage?	Poly	9%
Game 2: Any Player Rampage?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

77%

Top Probability

$122.45

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market refers to the Dota 2 match between MOUZ and Yellow Submarine in the 1win Essence Group A, initially scheduled for May 3 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Yellow Submarine. This market will resolve to "Yellow Submarine" if Yellow Submarine win the match against MOUZ. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 4, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market refers to the Dota 2 match between MOUZ and Yellow Submarine in the 1win Essence Group A, initially scheduled for May 3 at 2:00PM ET.

This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Yellow Submarine.

This market will resolve to "Yellow Submarine" if Yellow Submarine win the match against MOUZ.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market refers to the Dota 2 match between MOUZ and Yellow Submarine in the 1win Essence Group A, initially scheduled for May 3 at 2:00PM ET.

This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win the match against Yellow Submarine.

This market will resolve to "Yellow Submarine" if Yellow Submarine wi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $122
* **Total Liquidity:** $12.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.01)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $106
  DATA: [MOUZ: 76.5% (0.0%)] | [Yellow Submarine: 23.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [MOUZ: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [Yellow Submarine: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [MOUZ: 70.5% (0.0%)] | [Yellow Submarine: 29.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Games Total: Over/Under 2.5
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Over: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [MOUZ: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [Yellow Submarine: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Game 1: Ends in Daytime?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Game 1: Any Player Ultra Kill?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Game 1: Any Player Rampage?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Game 2: Ends in Daytime?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Game 2: Both Teams Beat Roshan?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Game 2: Any Player Ultra Kill?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Game 2: Any Player Rampage?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 2.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.1% (0.0%)]

### 16. Game 3: Ends in Daytime?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 48.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 53.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Game 3: Both Teams Destroy Barracks?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 51.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 52.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 47.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Game 3: Any Player Rampage?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETSports

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

Volume$122.45

Markets20

20 of 20

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POLYMARKET

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 53.0¢No 47.0¢

POLYMARKETSports

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

This market is about whether both teams kill Roshan at least once during Game 3. Roshan is a powerful neutral boss in Dota 2 that spawns at the start of the game and respawns 8–11 minutes after each death, dropping the Aegis of the Immortal and other valuable items. This market will resolve to "Yes

POLYMARKET

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 52.5¢No 47.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

This market is about whether any player achieves an Ultra Kill during Game 3. In Dota 2, an Ultra Kill occurs when a single player kills 4 enemy heroes in rapid succession without dying. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player on either team achieves an Ultra Kill during Game 3. This market

POLYMARKET

Game 1: Ends in Daytime?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Game 1: Ends in Daytime?

This market is about whether Game 1 ends during the daytime phase of the Dota 2 day/night cycle. In Dota 2, the day/night cycle alternates every 5 minutes (daytime runs from 0:00–5:00, 10:00–15:00, 20:00–25:00, and so on, while nighttime runs from 5:00–10:00, 15:00–20:00, 25:00–30:00, and so on). T

POLYMARKET

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

This market is about whether Game 2 ends during the daytime phase of the Dota 2 day/night cycle. In Dota 2, the day/night cycle alternates every 5 minutes (daytime runs from 0:00–5:00, 10:00–15:00, 20:00–25:00, and so on, while nighttime runs from 5:00–10:00, 15:00–20:00, 25:00–30:00, and so on). T

POLYMARKET

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 51.5¢No 48.5¢

POLYMARKETSports

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

This market is about whether Game 3 ends during the daytime phase of the Dota 2 day/night cycle. In Dota 2, the day/night cycle alternates every 5 minutes (daytime runs from 0:00–5:00, 10:00–15:00, 20:00–25:00, and so on, while nighttime runs from 5:00–10:00, 15:00–20:00, 25:00–30:00, and so on). T

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40¢

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Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

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Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

Markets (20)

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

Game 1: Ends in Daytime?

Game 1: Ends in Daytime?

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

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Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

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Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

Game 3: Both Teams Beat Roshan?

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

Game 3: Any Player Ultra Kill?

Game 1: Ends in Daytime?

Game 1: Ends in Daytime?

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

Game 2: Ends in Daytime?

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

Game 3: Ends in Daytime?

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