Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers one short window, titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET" [1]. According to the excerpt, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1]
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream. The excerpt states that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] A reader comparing this with a spot price or a Bitcoin contract on another platform should expect differences in the price source, the averaging method, and the time window.
The listed end time is 2026-11-02T09:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not a resolution. The supplied evidence does not show a final outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. The provider observation time is 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-01T10:56:08.348Z [1]. These are separate timestamps. The prices describe the observation, and the retrieval time records when the record was pulled. Both are earlier than the current report time, so these figures are a past snapshot, not live quotes.
The prices are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The 0.01 gap between the two outcomes describes only this saved snapshot. The evidence does not explain why the gap exists.
The sample includes one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows 1 total market, 1 included, and partialSample set to false [1]. Because only one contract is in the sample, no ranking or comparison within the event is possible. The supplied market record also contains no volume figure, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the Bitcoin price at the start or end of the window, the TWAP value, or the final result. It does not show trading activity after the observation time. The provider status is recorded as "active" in the saved data [1], which does not confirm the status today.
The sample is limited to this provider and this event. The sample warning states: "This does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome." [1] Any comparison with another platform's Bitcoin contract would require that contract's own rules, close time, and snapshot time.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 1, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window Bitcoin contract listed on Polymarket. The title is "Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET" [1]. The provider states that the market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, which the provider links as a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The provider specifies that the contract concerns the price in that Chainlink stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. Because of this, the contract's outcome depends on that specific data feed rather than on the general Bitcoin price across exchanges. The saved provider record lists the contract as active, with a listed end time of 2026-11-02T09:00:00.000Z [1]. The provider observed this record at 2026-11-01T09:00:05.893Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-11-01T10:56:33.655Z [1]. The listed end time is the contract's closing time in the provider's rules, and it is not evidence that any resolution has occurred. The title's 4:00AM ET window end is the time range the TWAP is measured over [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a 15-minute window as recorded by a specific Chainlink TWAP data stream [1]. It does not ask whether Bitcoin's price is higher at the end of the window than at a single moment on another exchange. The comparison is between the TWAP across the window and the price at the window's start, both taken from the named Chainlink stream [1]. Traders reading the contract therefore need to understand that the stream's methodology, not general market commentary, determines the result.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-01 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and Down otherwise [1].
Which price source does the contract use?
The contract uses the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the provider states that it does not use other sources or spot markets [1].
Does a price that ends exactly equal to the starting price count as Up?
Yes. The provider's rule uses greater than or equal to for the Up outcome, so a TWAP equal to the starting price resolves to Up [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Bitcoin green days week of November 2?
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin green days week of November 9?
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET
PM $0Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.