Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
PM $12.23
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
PM $12.23
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $12.23
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET" event, in the Crypto category [1]. It resolves to "Up" if "the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T05:30:00.000Z [1]. Three timestamps matter here. The provider observation time is 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, the source retrieval time is 2026-10-19T07:00:13.454Z, and the listed end time is the contract's closing point. None of these is a record of how the contract resolved. The evidence contains no resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot shows one outcome pair. "Up" is priced at 0.495 and "Down" at 0.505 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the observation time, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.000, but that does not make either price a confirmed forecast.
The provider reported the market as "active" at observation [1]. That describes the status at the observation time only. The evidence does not show whether the market is still open, trading, or priced the same way today.
The sample is limited. The coverage record lists one platform, one event, and one market, with no partial sample flag [1]. Because the sample contains a single contract, there is no comparison with other markets in this snapshot. The evidence contains no volume figure, so it says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the Up and Down prices sit where they do, and this summary does not offer a reason. It also does not show how the TWAP will compare with the starting price, whether the market will resolve, or what the final price will be. Any comparison with a similar contract on another platform would need matching title, time window, and resolution source before the two could be read together, since differences in wording or closing times can change what each price measures.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window price contract on Hyperliquid, titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 20, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET" and listed in the crypto category. The contract is a binary market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. It asks whether the price of HYPE/USD over a fixed 15-minute window ends higher or lower than it began, using a specific data feed rather than a general view of the market. The rules are set by the event on Polymarket. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval, and the rules state that the market concerns only that Chainlink data stream and not other sources or spot markets [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T05:30:00.000Z, which corresponds to the close of the 1:15AM to 1:30AM ET window named in the title [1]. The source record shows the event as active when it was observed, which is a status at that observation time and not a live reading today. Closing time, resolution and settlement are separate steps, and the rules describe how resolution is determined rather than reporting any outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of HYPE/USD over one short window, as read from Chainlink's TWAP data stream. Because the comparison is between the average price across the window and the price at its start, the result depends on how the averaged price moves relative to that starting level, not only on the final price at the close [1]. This makes the rules specific: a reader who relies on a different exchange's quote or a spot price may get a different picture than the contract's stated source provides [1]. The contract also shows how a short-duration crypto market is defined. Its title gives the date and time range, its resolution rule names the data provider and feed, and its end time is written in UTC [1]. Those details determine what the price represents and when it can be checked.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1].
Which price source does the contract use?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream at the 60-second interval named in the source [1]. The rules say the market is about that data stream and not about other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T05:30:00.000Z [1]. This is the end of the 1:15AM to 1:30AM ET window in the title, and it is a contract rule rather than an announced event.
Does a price difference between this contract and another market create an opportunity?
Not on the basis of this entry alone. The contract is defined by its own resolution source and rules, so differing prices on other contracts may reflect different definitions [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.