$945.52
1
2
2 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the MA-02 House seat? | Poly | 93% |
Will the Republican Party win the MA-02 House seat? | Poly | 8% |
$945.52
1
2
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the outcome of the 2026 election for Massachusetts's 2nd congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate, as determined by official ballot listings or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called by the market's designated resolution sources. The election will be held on November 4, 2026, as part of the national midterm elections. Massachusetts's 2nd district, often abbreviated as MA-02, is a politically competitive district covering much of central and western Massachusetts, including cities like Worcester, Amherst, and Northampton. The seat is currently held by Democrat Jim McGovern, who has represented the district since 1997. Interest in this market stems from its potential to serve as a bellwether for national political trends in a swing district, the possibility of an open seat if the incumbent retires, and its role in the broader battle for control of the House of Representatives. Political observers monitor districts like MA-02 for early signals about voter sentiment, fundraising strength, and candidate quality ahead of presidential election cycles. The outcome could influence legislative priorities, committee assignments, and the balance of power in a closely divided Congress.
Massachusetts's 2nd congressional district has existed in various forms since 1789. For most of the 20th century, the district was represented by Republicans, including Edward Boland who served from 1953 to 1989. The district's political character began shifting in the 1990s. Democrat Jim McGovern first won the seat in 1996, defeating Republican incumbent Peter Blute by a margin of 53% to 45%. McGovern's victory was part of a broader Democratic trend in New England's congressional delegation. Since then, the district has remained in Democratic hands, but its margins have varied. In the 2010 midterm wave election, McGovern faced a strong challenge from Republican Marty Lamb, winning by a narrower 55% to 45%. The district's boundaries were significantly redrawn following the 2010 census, adding more Democratic-leaning areas around Worcester and the Pioneer Valley while removing some Republican-leaning towns. This redistricting, completed by the Massachusetts legislature in 2011, solidified the district's Democratic lean but did not eliminate its competitive potential in strong Republican years. The 2022 redistricting made only minor adjustments, leaving the district's fundamental partisan composition intact.
The outcome of the MA-02 race has implications for national governance. Every seat is critical in a House of Representatives where the majority party often holds a slim margin. A party flip in this district could directly impact which party controls the chamber, determining the Speaker of the House and the legislative agenda. Control of the House affects federal budgeting, oversight investigations, and the passage of major legislation. For the district's constituents, the election determines their representative's influence on committees, ability to secure federal funding for local projects, and advocacy on issues like healthcare, education, and infrastructure. The race also serves as a testing ground for national party messages and strategies ahead of the 2028 presidential election. A surprisingly strong performance by either party in this district could signal shifting voter coalitions in New England or the effectiveness of new campaign tactics.
As of late 2024, Representative Jim McGovern has not publicly announced his intentions for the 2026 election. He continues to serve in Congress and raise funds through his campaign committee. The political environment for the 2026 midterms remains undefined, as it will be shaped by the outcome of the 2024 presidential election and the subsequent two years of governance. No major candidates from either party have formally declared a challenge. Party committees are in early stages of assessing the national map and identifying potential target districts. Fundraising reports for the 2026 cycle will begin to provide signals of candidate strength and party commitment in early 2025.
The current U.S. Representative for Massachusetts's 2nd congressional district is Democrat Jim McGovern. He has held the seat since January 1997 and serves as the Ranking Member on the House Rules Committee.
The general election for Massachusetts's 2nd congressional district will be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2026. This date is set by federal law for the biennial election of all U.S. House members.
Massachusetts's 2nd district includes all of Worcester County except the town of Southborough, along with parts of Hampshire, Franklin, and Norfolk counties. Major population centers include Worcester, Amherst, Northampton, and Southbridge.
No. The district was historically competitive and often represented by Republicans until the 1990s. Democrat Jim McGovern's election in 1996 began a period of Democratic control that has lasted for over 25 years.
If Representative McGovern retires, does not seek re-election, or leaves office for another reason, a special election would be called to fill the vacancy. For the 2026 election, his retirement would trigger open primaries for both parties, likely making the race more competitive.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/NTBicn" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="MA-02 House Election Winner"></iframe>