GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

South Africa retail sales in May

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South Africa retail sales in May

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

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max 0.0%

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10 markets tracked

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.6%?

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Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.6%?	Kalshi	76%
Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.4%?	Kalshi	72%
Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.2%?	Kalshi	58%
Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.0%?	Kalshi	51%
Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.2%?	Kalshi	44%
Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.4%?	Kalshi	36%
Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.6%?	Kalshi	31%
Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.8%?	Kalshi	25%
Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 1.0%?	Kalshi	18%
Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 1.2%?	Kalshi	16%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

76%

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May 2026 If the South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** South Africa retail sales in May
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** May 2026

If the South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 is above X then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released. This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 is above 1.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 1.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 1.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.8%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 24.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.6%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 75.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.4%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 43.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.2%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 58.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 29, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

South Africa retail sales in May

Volume$0.00

Markets10

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KALSHI

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.6%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 75.5¢No 24.5¢

KALSHITech

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.6%?

If the South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 is above -0.6%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.4%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.5¢No 28.5¢

KALSHITech

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.4%?

If the South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 is above -0.4%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 58.0¢No 42.0¢

KALSHITech

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.2%?

If the South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 is above -0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHITech

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.0%?

If the South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 is above 0.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

KALSHI

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.2%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢

KALSHITech

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.2%?

If the South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 is above 0.2%, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the economic data is released.

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42¢

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South Africa retail sales in May

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Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.6%?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

South Africa retail sales in May

Markets (10)

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.6%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.6%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.2%?

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Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.6%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

South Africa retail sales in May

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.6%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.6%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.4%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above -0.2%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.0%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.2%?

Will South Africa retail sales MoM for May 2026 be above 0.2%?

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