Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks whether Bitcoin will finish its window higher or lower. The market "will resolve to 'Up' if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'" [1]. The window is the 6:45PM to 6:50PM ET range in the title [1].
The resolution source is narrow. The excerpt states the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should not assume that a Bitcoin price on another exchange or index settles this contract.
Timing also matters. The provider lists an end time of 2026-10-26T22:50:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time, not a statement that a result has been announced. The title's ET window and the UTC end time should both be checked against the reader's own time zone.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T01:30:41.991Z [1]. Prices from this snapshot describe that observation, not live conditions when you read this text. The market showed a status of "active" at the time of the saved record [1].
The quoted prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two outcomes are nearly equal in the saved record. This is a description of the quoted numbers only; the evidence does not explain why they were set at these levels.
The sample covers one market from one platform. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because both outcomes are included, there is no omitted outcome in this event. The volume information is not included in the supplied evidence, so no claim about liquidity or the number of traders can be made.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the Bitcoin price at the start of the window, the TWAP during the window, or the final result. It also does not show any events, news, or reasons that might affect the price. The supplied excerpt is a rule description and a saved price record, not a forecast or a report on outcomes.
A difference in price between this contract and a Bitcoin contract on another platform would not by itself indicate an opportunity. The wording, resolution source, and listed close times may differ. Any comparison should begin with the rules, not the prices.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Bitcoin price contract titled Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET. The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price over a five-minute window will finish at or above where it started. The market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink. The contract points specifically to the BTC/USD TWAP data stream, which is generated by Chainlink and is described as the basis for resolution [1]. The rules state that the contract concerns the price shown in that Chainlink data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not prices from other data sources or spot markets [1]. This means the outcome depends on the Chainlink series, even if other exchanges or platforms show different prices during the same minutes. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-26T22:50:00.000Z [1]. A listed end time records when the provider's event closes, but it is not a separate announced event. The provider record captured in the snapshot showed the contract as active at its observation time, which was 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z [1]. Because that is an earlier observation, it does not establish the contract's status at the moment this article is read.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over a defined window, as recorded in one specific data series. It does not measure the general market price of Bitcoin at any moment, nor does it use a single trade price at the end of the window. Because the rule compares a time-weighted average over the window with the price at its beginning, the result can differ from a simple comparison of the starting and ending prices [1]. The rules also limit resolution to the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP stream, so a reader who compares the contract with another price feed should expect that feed to be treated as outside the rules [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve Up?
The contract resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, according to the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1].
What makes this contract resolve Down?
The contract resolves Down when the time-weighted average price over the stated range is not greater than or equal to the starting price, as measured by the same Chainlink data stream [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The outcome is decided by the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say the contract is not based on any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time in the provider record is 2026-10-26T22:50:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.