What will Satya Nadella say during NYT DealBook Summit?
K 393 contracts
1
18
What will Satya Nadella say during NYT DealBook Summit?
K 393 contracts
1
18
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 393 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
18
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
Satya Nadella - 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 If Satya Nadella says X as part of 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved Video of the 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 using the original broadcast, stream, or official video release by The New York Times. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external, official, transcripts of the 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases, e.g. names, titles, etc. Satya Nadella speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify, e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic. Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These markets ask whether Satya Nadella says a specific term during the "2026 New York Times DealBook Summit originally scheduled for November 18, 2026" [1]. The source says the market "resolves to Yes" if he says the term, and the payout criterion covers "The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word" [1]. Wording matters. The source states that "Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify" [1], and previously aired content and archival footage are generally excluded [1].
Each listed market covers a different term, such as Agent / Agentic, Copilot, Azure, or OpenAI [1]. The event is described as "originally scheduled," and the rules explain postponement handling: if an event is postponed and the postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day, with rescheduling within 14 calendar days, the markets remain open [1]. The evidence does not show that any postponement has occurred.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:21:27.198Z [1]. These prices describe that earlier snapshot, not live trading. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Within this sample, Yes prices range from 0.315 for the Azure market to 0.825 for the Agent / Agentic market [1]. Comparisons should stay within this event, since each contract prices its own wording. A higher or lower Yes price on one term does not show why traders priced it that way, and the evidence does not explain any price movement. A difference between contracts is not an arbitrage opportunity by itself.
Coverage is partial. The sample includes 12 of 18 markets from this Kalshi event [1]. Because the selection ranks markets by Yes price, the six omitted markets cannot be assessed from this sample, and this interpretation does not address volume.
What remains uncertain
The source excerpt states "Listed end time: not supplied," yet the market records show an end date of 2026-12-02T15:00:00.000Z [1]. The rules also say "This market will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1]. The recorded end date is therefore not a confirmed event date or resolution date. The rules say resolution uses video, with transcripts used if a consensus cannot be reached [1].
The evidence contains no outside news, trader counts, or historical accuracy data. Prices from different events or platforms should not be averaged together or compared without matching the terms and rules.
References
- Kalshi: What will Satya Nadella say during NYT DealBook Summit?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a mention market tied to a speaking appearance by Satya Nadella at the 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit, which the provider lists as originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 [1]. The core question is whether Nadella says a specified word or phrase during that address. Under the contract, the market resolves to Yes if he does and to No otherwise [1]. The provider states that a word or phrase counts when the exact term appears, along with a plural or possessive form of it. Plural nouns within proper nouns and noun phrases are also covered. For phrases written with a slash, either word satisfies the criterion. Grammatical or tense inflections are otherwise not included [1]. The rules also limit what qualifies as a statement. Nadella must be speaking in an official capacity. Presence alone during a livestream is not enough, and the rules specifically exclude inaudible private conversations on camera and unofficial remarks picked up on a hot mic. Previously aired content and archival footage generally do not count unless the contract says otherwise [1]. Resolution relies on video of the summit from the original broadcast, stream, or official release by The New York Times. If Kalshi employees cannot reach a consensus using video, official transcripts of the event are used [1]. The rules also address disruption. If the event is definitively cancelled, fails to qualify under the payout criterion, or cannot resolve normally, the separate "Event does not qualify" market resolves to Yes and the other markets resolve to No. If the event is postponed and the postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day with a new date within 14 calendar days, the markets remain open. The markets close early if the event occurs [1]. These are contract terms only. They do not indicate that any postponement or change has been announced.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific word or phrase is spoken by Satya Nadella during one named appearance, the 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit listed as originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 [1]. Its value depends on the exact wording rules, so a term spoken in a qualifying way counts, while a term that only appears in an excluded setting, such as an unofficial hot mic remark or archival clip, does not [1]. The contract also shows how the resolution is judged. The video or transcript from the official event is the reference point, not commentary about the event [1]. Because the market lists a closing date and an official event date, readers should keep the contract close date separate from the date the event actually takes place. The contract's listed end date is a field in the market data, and the source excerpt does not give a separate provider end time [1]. The market listings in this snapshot cover 12 of 18 markets for this one provider event. The sample is partial, and it is ordered by Yes price with volume as a secondary sort. The omitted markets are not implied to be lower or higher priced. Prices shown are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and trading volume does not indicate liquidity or the number of participants.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the contract ask?
It asks whether Satya Nadella will say a specified word or phrase during the 2026 New York Times DealBook Summit, which the source lists as originally scheduled for November 18, 2026 [1].
Does simply being on a livestream count?
No. The rules state that presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient, and that inaudible private conversations and unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic do not qualify [1].
Are plural or possessive forms counted?
Yes, the exact phrase or word counts along with its plural or possessive form, and plural nouns within proper nouns and noun phrases are included. Other grammatical or tense inflections are not included unless the contract specifies otherwise [1].
What happens if the event is postponed?
If a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day and the event is rescheduled within 14 calendar days, the markets remain open. Otherwise, a definitive cancellation or failure to qualify resolves the Event does not qualify market to Yes and the other markets to No [1].
How is the outcome checked?
The outcome is checked using video from the original broadcast, stream, or official release by The New York Times. If video review does not produce a consensus among Kalshi employees, official transcripts are used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
