AZ-05 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $12.5K
1
8
AZ-05 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $12.5K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 5-10% at 31.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 5-10%31.5%
- Republican 10-15%25%
- Republican 15-20%13%
- Republican 0-5%6.3%
- Republican 20-25%4.3%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $12.5K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 AZ-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks for the margin of victory in the 2026 AZ-05 House election, defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Only Democratic and Republican nominees count as options. "Independent candidates will not represent options for either party" [1]. If a nominee is replaced before election day, "the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party" [1].
Boundary and tie rules matter for reading the brackets. If the reported value "falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. The contract also says that if the election results are not known definitively by "June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'" [1]. That deadline is a contract rule, not an announced date for certification.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this snapshot at 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z, and the source was retrieved at 11:56:18.806Z. All eight saved Polymarket markets for this event are included, and the coverage record shows no partial sample. Each market lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
The saved Yes prices are as follows. Republican 0%-5% is not listed, but the Democratic 0%-5% bracket is listed at 0.0355. Republican 0%-5% is listed at 0.0855.
- Republican by 0%-5% is not in the sample; Democratic by 0%-5% is 0.0355, and Republican by 0%-5% is 0.0855.
- Republican by 5%-10% is 0.275.
- Republican by 10%-15% is 0.25.
- Republican by 15%-20% is 0.165.
- Republican by 20%-25% is 0.047.
- Republican by 25% or more is 0.0375.
- Democratic by 5% or more is 0.037.
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices in this sample total about 0.93, but the source notes that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A low price on a bracket here does not show how unlikely that result is beyond this snapshot.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot is from October 17, 2026 and may no longer match current prices. The source does not explain why any price is where it is, and no other platform is included for comparison, so no cross-platform conclusions are supported. Contract wording could differ elsewhere, so readers should check each contract's own rules before comparing them.
References
- Polymarket: AZ-05 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract tracks the margin of victory in the 2026 election for Arizona's 5th congressional district (AZ-05), a United States House race. The source describes the election as expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. A separate Wikipedia summary states that the 2026 U.S. House elections in Arizona will be held on that date to elect nine representatives, one from each congressional district, and that the primary elections took place on July 21, 2026 [2]. The contract does not ask which candidate wins. It asks how far ahead the winner is. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the measure is an absolute difference, it describes the size of the gap between the top two finishers rather than which party finished first. The listed contract brackets are grouped by party. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. Within the saved sample, the Republican side includes brackets for 0% to 5%, 5% to 10%, 10% to 15%, 15% to 20%, 20% to 25%, and 25% or more. The Democratic side includes brackets for 0% to 5% and 5% or more [1]. This sample contains eight markets, all of which were included, so the brackets shown are the complete set saved for this event rather than a full list of every possible outcome. The contract also covers several edge cases. If a reported value falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, it resolves to the higher margin bracket. If candidates tie for the most valid votes, the tiebreak rules determine the bracket based on ballot-listed last names, and a tie involving two or more unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1].
Historical Context
The source identifies July 21, 2026 as the date the primary elections took place for the 2026 U.S. House elections in Arizona [2]. That is a past event. The source does not name the AZ-05 nominees in the supplied material, and the contract states that a named candidate's entry will be updated if that candidate is replaced as the party nominee before election day [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the size of the winning margin in the AZ-05 House race, expressed as the gap in valid-vote percentages between the top two candidates [1]. Traders are therefore pricing a range of outcomes rather than a single winner. The official result is the basis for resolution. The primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The contract says it will resolve based on the official vote count once that count has been made official [1]. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. This is a contract date and is not an announcement that results will be available at that time. The contract separately says that if election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to "Other" [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market remains open until the recount is complete and the vote is certified [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is based on the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if the result falls exactly between two brackets?
The contract resolves to the higher margin bracket in that case [1].
Do independent candidates count as options?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party, and the Democrat and Republican options are tied to the party nominees [1].
What happens if a named candidate is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract will be updated, and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
What is the resolution source?
The primary source is the official results of the 2026 AZ-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
What if results are still unknown by June 30, 2027?
The contract states that it will resolve to "Other" if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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