Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PM $79.0K
1
7
Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PM $79.0K
1
7
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is ↑$22.5B at 62%.
Polymarket
- ↑$22.5B62%
- ↑$25B37.5%
- ↑$30B17%
- ↓$15B8.5%
- ↑$40B5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $79.0K
Reported volume · provider units
7
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published for the period prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as any applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the end of the specified period, this market will consider, in addition to the relevant NPM valuations published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, the valuation implied by the official IPO or direct listing price, and the company's public market capitalization between the IPO or direct listing date and the end of the specified period. Public market capitalization will be determined using the highest/lowest official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for any trading day during the specified period, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks whether Perplexity's private market valuation will reach a listed amount. The rules say the market "will resolve to "Yes" if Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, reaches or exceeds the listed amount" [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract with its own price.
NPM prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-01T13:00:00.000Z. The rules also say that if NPM has not published data for all business dates by that time, the market "may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027" [1]. These are rule terms, not announced events.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these markets at 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-23T02:55:57.582Z. The provider status was active [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample includes all seven saved markets for this event, with no partial sample flag. The sample warning states that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome. The Yes prices were:
- $12.5B (LOW): 0.017
- $15B (LOW): 0.075
- $22.5B (HIGH): 0.615
- $25B (HIGH): 0.355
- $30B (HIGH): 0.185
- $40B (HIGH): 0.05
- $50B (HIGH): 0.045
Within the HIGH group, Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The supplied evidence does not define the HIGH and LOW labels, so the LOW markets should not be ranked against the HIGH markets. The evidence also contains no volume data, so these prices cannot be read as liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The prices describe the moment of observation, not the present. Because the observation time is October 23, 2026, the reader should not treat these figures as current. The evidence does not explain why any price changed.
Differences among the thresholds reflect different contracts, not an arbitrage opportunity. No other platform's data appears in this evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Final resolution will depend on NPM data published under the stated rules, and revisions are excluded unless they correct clearly erroneous data [1].
References
- Polymarket: Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 23, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "Will Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?" in the Finance category. The contract asks whether Perplexity's private market valuation, measured by the NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), reaches or exceeds a listed amount on any date from market creation through December 31, 2026 [1]. The event's rules say the market resolves to "Yes" if that threshold is met and to "No" otherwise [1]. The event contains seven separate threshold markets, each asking about a different valuation level. The saved sample includes all seven markets for this event, so the set is complete for that provider event, although the provider's listing does not establish that every possible valuation level has been offered [1]. Each market has a Yes and a No outcome, and the prices shown are snapshots from the provider rather than executable quotes or verified probabilities. The resolution mechanics depend on NPM data. NPM prices are published only for trading days and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day [1]. Revisions to previously published NPM data are generally not considered unless they correct clearly erroneous data [1]. If NPM has not published data for all business dates in the period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, the market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027, and then resolve on the data available [1]. These are contract rules and deadlines, not announced events. The rules also address corporate events. If the company completes an IPO or direct listing before the period ends, the market would consider the implied IPO price valuation and public market capitalization based on official regular-hours trading prices and reported share counts [1]. If the company is acquired or ceases to exist as an independent entity, only valuations and market capitalizations achieved before the transaction would count, and no acquisition consideration would be used [1]. The rules state that the listed end time is 2027-01-01 13:00 UTC [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a private company's valuation, as reported through a single named private market price series, reaches a stated level during a fixed window [1]. Because the thresholds differ, each market captures a different level of valuation reached within the same period [1]. The rules show that the answer depends on NPM publication practices, the timing of daily updates, and whether a public listing or corporate transaction occurs first [1]. Traders reading the prices should therefore look at the resolution language rather than assuming the question is about public market value or a company announcement [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-23 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome require?
A Yes outcome requires Perplexity's private market valuation, as measured by the NPM Price reported by NPM, to reach or exceed the listed amount on any date between market creation and December 31, 2026 [1].
Which data source decides the market?
The rules name NPM data as the resolution source, and state that NPM prices are published for trading days only and updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day [1]. After an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, the rules name official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts as the source [1].
What happens if NPM data is missing at the deadline?
If NPM has not published data for all business dates in the period by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, the market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027, and if no further data is released, it resolves according to the data available [1].
Do later revisions to NPM data count?
Revisions made after initial release are not considered unless they correct clearly erroneous data [1].
What if the company is acquired before the period ends?
Only NPM valuations and applicable public market capitalizations achieved before the transaction is completed are considered, and no transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration counts for resolution [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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