Dogecoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers Dogecoin over the window named in its title, "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET" [1]. According to the saved rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Traders comparing this contract with a DOGE price on another venue or with a different window should note that the wording differs.
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T14:50:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved market shows two outcomes, "Up" at 0.5 and "Down" at 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The observation time is 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-31T10:38:57.583Z [1]. The observation came before the stated window opened, so the prices describe that earlier moment only. They do not show conditions in the window or at the time you read this.
The sample contains one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. The sample warning states that the saved markets "are included" but that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because only one contract is saved, there is no comparison with other contracts or platforms here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why either price stood at 0.5, how much trading occurred, or how many participants hold either side. Volume is not liquidity, and the snapshot does not show spreads or depth.
The evidence also does not show the actual DOGE/USD TWAP values, the beginning-of-window price, or the final resolution. Anyone reading this should check the Chainlink data stream and the provider's current status directly, since the saved status "active" reflects the observation time only.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window market on the price of Dogecoin. Its title refers to the period from 10:45 AM to 10:50 AM ET on October 31, and it asks whether the price will move up or down over that range [1]. The rule is that the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin over the stated range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, specifically a 60-second stream, rather than any general market or exchange price [1]. The rules state that the market concerns only the price in that Chainlink stream and not any other sources or spot markets [1]. Because of this, a reader should check the named stream when interpreting the outcome, not other price feeds for Dogecoin. The listed end time is 14:50 UTC, which corresponds to the close of the 10:50 AM ET window [1]. The saved record shows the market as active. Its two outcomes, Up and Down, each showed a price of 0.5 at the observation time in the record. That observation time is earlier than the retrieval time and is not a live reading.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Dogecoin's price, as recorded by one specific Chainlink TWAP data stream, finishes the stated window at or above where the window began [1]. Because the measure is an average over the window compared with a starting level, it captures the direction of the averaged price rather than the price at the final moment. Anyone reading the market should understand that the named data stream, the 60-second averaging, and the start-of-range reference together define the outcome [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-31 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an Up outcome require?
An Up outcome requires the time-weighted average price of Dogecoin over the 10:45 AM to 10:50 AM ET range to be greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price source decides the result?
The result is decided by the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, which the rules name as the resolution source [1].
Do prices from exchanges or other sources affect this market?
The rules state that the market is about the price according to the Chainlink TWAP data stream and not according to any other sources or spot markets [1].
Does a price of 0.5 mean there is a 50 percent chance of Up?
No. The saved prices are snapshots from a past observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a forecast of the outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.