Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied event asks how many receiving touchdowns Marvin Harrison Jr. records in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. Each market resolves to "Yes" if his count "equals or exceeds the listed number," and to "No" otherwise [1]. The five markets in this snapshot use thresholds of 1.5, 3.5, 5.5, 7.5, and 9.5 touchdowns.

The rules also set edge cases. If Harrison "does not play in the 2026-27 NFL regular season for any reason, this market will resolve to 'No'" [1]. If the season ends early, the outcome is "determined using available official data for completed games" [1]. If the season is cancelled, or is "postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET," or the count cannot be determined, the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a listed close time, not an announced event date, and the actual resolution will depend on the outcome.

Reading the snapshot

The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T05:59:23.717Z [1]. It records prices at that moment only. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.

The "Yes" prices fall as the threshold rises: 0.8715 for 1.5 or more, 0.47 for 3.5 or more, 0.22 for 5.5 or more, 0.1195 for 7.5 or more, and 0.085 for 9.5 or more [1]. These are separate contracts on nested thresholds, so they should not be summed or treated as a single distribution. Their differences in price reflect different questions, not different platforms or different close times, since all five share the same listed end time [1].

The sample is complete for this provider event. The coverage record shows five markets, all five included, with no partial sample [1]. The source notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Only one platform is in the evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, how many traders hold each view, or how liquid each contract is. Volume is not included in this summary and would not measure liquidity or trader count in any case. The evidence also contains no current news about Harrison's roster status, health, or team situation. Readers should check the official NFL information the rules name as the primary resolution source [1], and should note that the rules allow a consensus of credible reporting to be used as well [1].

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Marvin Harrison Jr. 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.