Gold price at year end?
PM $2.30M · K 361.2K contracts
2
24
Gold price at year end?
PM $2.30M · K 361.2K contracts
2
24
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 30, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is ↑ $4,500 at 49.5%, and on Kalshi it is 4,400 or above at 33%.
Polymarket
- ↑ $4,50049.5%
- ↓ $3,5009.5%
- ↑ $5,0003.5%
- ↓ $3,0002.5%
- ↓ $2,5002.4%
Kalshi
- 4,400 or above33%
- 4,300 or above31.5%
- 4,500 or above16%
- 4,700 or above11%
- 4,600 or above9.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $2.30M · K 361.2K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
24
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
On December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above X USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T12:00:06.236Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether gold will close above a set threshold at a specific time. The source states: "If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST is above X USD/t.oz, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each listed market uses a different threshold for X, from 4300 to 5200 USD per troy ounce in the included sample. The resolution test is therefore a single one-minute candlestick close at 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2026, not a yearly average or a closing-day high.
The market records carry an end date of 2027-01-08T01:00:00.000Z. That field is a listed provider value and is not the same as the 5:00 PM EST observation time in the contract wording. The source excerpt also says "Listed end time: not supplied," so this evidence does not explain how the two times relate. Readers should rely on the contract rules for the observation point.
Reading the snapshot
The prices were observed at 2026-10-28T12:00:06.236Z and retrieved at 2026-10-28T14:37:16.948Z. They describe the market at those times only. They are not live quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.
Within the included sample, Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The 4300 market shows Yes at 0.355 and the 4400 market shows 0.275. The 5200 market shows 0.04 and the 5000 market shows 0.065. Each price is a separate contract on a separate threshold, so these figures should be read as a ladder of distinct questions, not as one distribution to be averaged or normalized.
The sample is partial. Of 13 total markets for this event, 12 are included [1]. The selection ranks markets by finite Yes price, then volume. The omitted market's price is not in the evidence, so no conclusion about its level is supported. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count, and different prices across contracts do not, by themselves, indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show why any price moved, how many traders hold each view, or what news bears on gold. It does not include the omitted thirteenth market, any later price, or the settlement outcome. Because the snapshot is from October 28, 2026, it cannot describe current conditions. The listed end time differs from the contract's observation time, and the evidence does not explain that difference.
References
- Kalshi: Gold price at year end?. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T12:00:06.236Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract, titled "Gold price at year end?", is a Kalshi event on the price of gold at a set time at the end of 2026. Under the provider's rules, the contract resolves to Yes if the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on December 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST is above the threshold named in each market [1]. Each market in the event therefore asks the same question at a different threshold, such as whether gold will be above 4300 or above 4400 USD per troy ounce at that moment [1]. The timing matters. The December 31, 2026 date and 5:00 PM EST time appear in the contract rules as the measurement point. They are not an announced event or a news date. The rules measure one minute of trading at that moment, so a contract can move quite differently from a view on the average price over the whole year. Gold is widely held as an investment. Investors often buy it to diversify risk, including through futures contracts and derivatives, and the gold market is subject to speculation and volatility as other markets are [3]. Silver can be held through similar channels, including exchange-traded products and futures, and it also has substantial industrial demand [2]. Background pages like these explain how gold is traded and why its price moves, but they do not describe the Kalshi contract or the price of gold on any given day. The prices shown for each market are snapshots taken at the observation time. They reflect the last recorded state of the contract on the provider and are not executable quotes. They are also not verified probabilities of the outcome. A Yes price of 0.355 for the 4300 threshold, for example, means only that the snapshot recorded that price for that contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single observation: the closing price of gold in the 1-minute candlestick at 5:00 PM EST on December 31, 2026 [1]. Because the outcome depends on one minute rather than an average or a daily close, the result can differ from the broader trend in gold prices. Each threshold in the event is a separate yes or no question about whether that closing price exceeds a given level [1]. Gold is a common subject of investment and hedging, and its price is affected by speculation and volatility [3]. Contracts like this one let participants take a position on where that price will sit at a specific future time. The price a participant sees on the platform reflects the trading interest in that contract at the snapshot time, not a forecast endorsed by the source or by PredictPedia.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome mean in this contract?
According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to Yes if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on December 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST is above the threshold stated in that market [1].
Why do the markets have different thresholds?
Each market in the event asks whether gold will be above a different level, such as 4300 or 4400 USD per troy ounce [1]. A higher threshold asks for a higher closing price, so each market is a separate question within the same event [1].
Is the December 31, 2026 date an announced event?
No. The date and time are the measurement point written into the contract rules [1]. They describe when the closing price is read, not a scheduled announcement or news event.
Do the prices show the chance that gold will reach each level?
The prices are snapshots of contract prices on the provider at the observation time [1]. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a forecast.
Does the sample include every market in this event?
No. The sample includes 12 of 13 markets in this provider event [1]. The omitted market is not identified here, so the sample should not be treated as the complete set of thresholds or as showing how the omitted market is priced.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Who will have a #1 hit this year?
PM $194.2K · K 725.9K contractsWill Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
Kalshi: Will Mariah Carey have a #1 album this year?
Related contracts
Will Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
Kalshi: Will Mariah Carey have a #1 hit this year?
Related contracts
Will Lil Baby have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
Kalshi: Will Lil Baby have a #1 album this year?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Who will have a top 10 song this year?
K 167.7K contracts
Who will have a top 20 song this year?
K 107.4K contracts
TIME's Athlete of the Year
K 0 contracts
Gold price on Oct 30, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
K 0 contracts
Time's Person of the Year for 2026
K 1.94M contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
