BNB Up or Down - October 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract covers one event, "BNB Up or Down - October 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET," on Polymarket [1]. It resolves to "Up" if "the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The stated resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream, and the source notes that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z [1]. Readers should note that this is the listed close time for the contract, and that the title's time window is expressed in ET. Those are separate fields, and the supplied evidence does not state how the two were reconciled.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and the application retrieved the source at 2026-10-30T15:04:02.217Z [1]. These are historical snapshot times, not live conditions. The market was listed as active at observation [1].
The saved snapshot shows two outcomes, each priced at 0.5: "Up" at 0.5 and "Down" at 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The evidence does not explain what produced these prices, and this analysis does not infer any reason for them.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record reports 1 total market, 1 included market, and no partial sample [1]. The sample warning states that all saved markets for this event are included, but that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because this is a single binary contract, no outcomes are omitted from this snapshot.
What remains uncertain
The evidence contains no current price. The snapshot is from 2026-10-30 and is not a live reading. The evidence also contains no volume figures, no liquidity information, and no count of traders, so none of these can be assessed. Prices from other platforms or other BNB contracts are not in the evidence and should not be compared with these figures, because the wording, time windows, and close times may differ. The contract has not resolved according to the supplied evidence, and the outcome depends on the Chainlink TWAP comparison described in the rules [1].
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-horizon price contract listed on Polymarket for BNB, a crypto asset, over the window described in its title, October 31 from 4:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET. The contract asks whether BNB will be higher or lower over that window, using a specific data feed rather than general market prices. The rules state that the market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and otherwise to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules say the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink TWAP data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not according to any other sources or spot markets [1]. This means that a price shown on an exchange or another data provider does not determine the outcome on its own. The contract follows only the named stream. The listed end time for the event is 2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z [1]. The event page was observed at 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T15:04:02.242Z [1]. Those are separate timestamps. The observation time describes when the listing data was captured, the retrieval time describes when this article's source was fetched, and the listed end time describes when the contract's window closes. None of them confirms the final result, which depends on the Chainlink data over the window.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average price of BNB/USD, as reported by the named Chainlink TWAP data stream, over the stated window is at or above the price at the window's start [1]. Using a time-weighted average rather than a single reading means the outcome reflects the average level across the window instead of one moment. The comparison is against the starting price, so the question is directional: whether the averaged price finishes the window at or above where the window began. Readers should note that the contract refers to one data stream and one pair, so its outcome is defined by those inputs and not by BNB prices generally [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" resolution mean for this contract?
The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink-generated time-weighted average price of BNB over the window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window [1].
What does a "Down" resolution mean?
Under the stated rules, the market resolves to "Down" when the condition for "Up" is not met, meaning the time-weighted average over the window is below the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price source determines the outcome?
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does the contract's window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-31T12:00:00.000Z [1]. The title describes the window as 4:00 AM to 8:00 AM ET on October 31 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.